647
FXUS65 KPUB 062346
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm winds are possible over the
  southeastern plains this afternoon

- Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over the San Luis Valley, the La Garitas, and the southern
  portion of the upper Arkansas River Valley, however fuels are
  not critical, therefore no fire weather products will be
  issued.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday evening, with
  strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers and
  thunderstorms expected Monday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows cumulus
development across the higher terrain, and stretching from the
Palmer Divide, eastward to Kiowa County.  Radar is free and clear.
Drier air is currently mixing eastward across the Plains with
dewpoints falling.  Temperatures are also on the hotter side, with
80s and 90s across the Plains.

Rest of today...drier air continues to push eastward across the
Plains, and most model guidance continues to show afternoon shower
and thunderstorm activity remaining east in Kansas this afternoon
where deeper moisture exists.  The boundary that stretches from the
Palmer Divide, eastward bares watching out near Kiowa County, where
a few attempts to robust convection have sputtered.  There could be
one or two storms out that way.  The other area to watch would be
along the moisture boundary across Baca County.  Model guidance
continues to dry out our area, with convection east of the Kansas
border into this evening.  If storms can develop, elevated DCAPE
will lead to a wind risk.  Any storms that develop in our area will
shift east into Kansas pretty quickly.

Tonight...outflow from storms in Kansas will back westward advecting
moisture back across the Plains overnight.  A surface low is also
forecast to develop, helping to further draw moisture back across
the Plains.  Dewpoints in the 50s is expected, with a few model
guidance members having lower 60 dewpoint air near the Kansas
border.  With moisture pooling back across the Plains, low stratus
will fill in overnight.  There could be light precipitation out near
the Kansas border overnight.  Overnight lows will fall into the 50s
and 60s across the Plains and 40s across the San Luis Valley.

Sunday...active weather look likely by Sunday afternoon.  Northwest
flow aloft with and embedded shortwave is forecast to move across
the region by the afternoon hours.  Low level, moist upslope flow
will keep the overnight moisture pooled across the Plains.
Temperatures look to warm into the 70s and 80s by the afternoon.
SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg are expected by the afternoon,
and 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts will be sufficient for strong, to
possibly severe thunderstorm development.  Expect initial
thunderstorm development across the Palmer Divide by midday,
spreading south along the I-25 corridor and into the Plains through
the afternoon.  Given the parameters mentioned above, outflow winds
to near 60 mph and hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter will be
possible with stronger storms.  In addition, given the shear and
profiles, high-res guidance is developing helicity track with a
couple of stronger storms across the Palmer Divide, south across
Pueblo County with initial development, so there could be a small
tornado threat.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday Night: The end of the weekend is anticipated to have some
active weather across portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A shortwave embedded within northwest flow will be pushing
over the area bringing heightened support and forcing. Along with
that, this wave will have shoved a cold front southward earlier in
day, with better moisture behind the front. Given all of this, rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected for most of the area, but
particularly across the eastern mountains and plains. Showers and
storms are expected to blossom earlier in the day Sunday and persist
and/or continue to initiate during the early to mid evening hours as
the wave treks to the southeast. With the anticipated shear,
moisture, and instability, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible, with the primary hazards being severe wind gusts and large
hail. With all of that said, precipitation is expected to decrease
in coverage and intensity during the late evening hours as forcing
and instability lessen. As for temperatures, another mild night is
in store for much of the area, with even slightly below seasonal
normals for lows given the cold front passage earlier in the day.

Monday - Friday: For next week, some active weather is expected as a
mostly stagnant pattern remains in place. Flow will remain
northwesterly through most of this period, with flow becoming more
northerly near the end as a ridge of high pressure across the
western US drifts to the east. Confidence remains high to very high
(>60%) in this overall pattern evolution given continued and strong
support from ensemble model guidance. While weak waves and
orographics will allow for modest forcing, no major forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, and given that, drier conditions are
expected for the region. With that said though, given the lack of
any moisture scouring systems, daily isolated to scattered afternoon
rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along the mountains,
with some spillage of precipitation across the valleys and plains.
Looking at temperatures, Monday will be the coolest day, and even
slightly below seasonal values thanks to the cold front passage
from Sunday. Then for the rest of the week, a slow warm up is
anticipated, with near seasonal temperatures by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected to persist for
tonight through most of tomorrow, before afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances arrive after around 21Z. Winds will be mainly
out of the north this evening, with a cold front pushing through
both stations after 08Z tonight, bringing in gusts to around 28kt.
Winds become more northeasterly through the early morning hours, and
eventually due easterly at KPUB tomorrow afternoon. Some storms
could be strong tomorrow, with hail, outflow winds gusting to
50 mph, and lightning all possible on and near both stations.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will be mainly northwesterly through the period, with a shift to
gusty easterly winds after 00Z tomorrow evening. Showers and storms
are not expected for KALS tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR