Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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613 FXUS65 KPUB 010530 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1130 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening, a few of which could be severe. Main risks include: flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging winds gusting up to 60 mph, and lightning. - Thunderstorms decrease begin to decrease in coverage, and especially in intensity, for our Monday. - Drier conditions, especially across south central Colorado, leading to increasing fire danger through the 4th of July Holiday Week and Weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Currently.. Temperatures have climbed into the 70s and 80s across the plains, with dewpoints holding steady in the 50s and 60s for most locations. Morning stratus lingered over many areas, but finally burned off around noon, giving way to mostly sunny skies for a majority of the plains. This has allowed warm and moist conditions for the area. Cumulus is developing, which can be seen on satellite imagery, and a few showers and weak storms are already present on radar as of 2pm as well, mainly across the La Garitas and the southern I-25 corridor. So far, not much lighting to speak of for our area, but we`re seeing strong southeasterly low-level flow across our plains. SPC mesoanalysis is painting highest instability across our southern plains early this afternoon, with the best shear over our far northeastern plains, but those two areas have the potential to overlap more later on this evening. Rest of Today and Tonight.. While the likelihood of widespread severe development is looking low for today, we are very moist. For the most part, our most favorable shear and most favorable instability do not seem to overlap during peak heating. Later this evening, there is a potential for some outflow interaction to aid in the development of some stronger storms, especially across the Arkansas River Valley, where SPC mesoanalysis depicts higher shear values, which could help to keep storms more organized. If stronger storms are able to develop and become severe, the main risks with storms on our plains today will be excessive rainfall and flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging winds with gusts to 60 mph, and lightning. Excessive rainfall will also be possible with storms over the mountains today, especially for our flood prone areas, to include burn scars, and the Chalk Cliffs. Tomorrow... For Monday, the upper high will be situated to our southeast, allowing for southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Moisture will be much less for Monday than what we`ve seen through this weekend, which will be most evident in our thunderstorm intensity and our decreased humidity values. We`ll go from around 35-50% humidity ranges on our plains today to around 25-32% humidity ranges on our plains tomorrow. While another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the passage of more shortwave energy riding through the ridge tomorrow, storm intensity is expected to decrease, especially over our plains. Storm coverage is also expected to decrease somewhat as well, mainly over our plains. We will see less of a risk for excessive rainfall over the plains, as storms will become a bit higher based as drier air begins to make its way into the the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will, in turn, increase the risk for outflow winds gusting up to 45mph across our plains for tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm chances, expect daytime highs to to be a few degrees warmer than normal, with mid to upper 90s and a few triple digits across the plains, 70s and low 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern sets up across the Rockies throughout the upcoming work week, with several embedded waves progged to translate through the stronger flow across the Northern Tier sending occasional fronts across Eastern Colorado. These fronts, on Tuesday night into Wednesday and again late Thursday night into Friday morning, will bring increased low level moisture and chances of precipitation to Eastern Colorado through the work week, while much drier air aloft remains progged to work into the Central Rockies, as the westerly flow pushes subtropical moisture south and east of the region. With that said, there will be enough residual moisture to keep isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms in place across the area throughout the work week, with the best coverage expected across the eastern mountains and plains on Wednesday and again on Friday, behind the aforementioned passing fronts. With the drier air aloft working into the region, and moderate westerly flow aloft at times, there will be increasing fire danger through out the week, especially on Thursday (July 4th), with the potential for critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado. Temperatures around seasonal levels expected through out the work week, save for slightly cooler temperatures across eastern Colorado on Wednesday and possibly well below seasonal in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Friday, depending on how deep the upslope flow is behind Thursday night`s front. For Saturday and into early next week, latest model guidance indicates an anomalously strong northwest flow pattern across the Rockies, with a broad upper trough in place across the Upper Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest as upper level ridging builds across the West Coast. Ensemble data also indicates PWATs well below normal within the northwest flow aloft, leading to continued drier conditions and increased fire danger areawide. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 KALS: VFR conditions expected through 24 hours. Lingering storms in the valley will move off over the next few hours with winds shifting, turning more southwesterly by about 12Z. More showers will enter the vicinity around 18Z, with storms lasting into the late afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be possible, mainly from the west. KCOS and KPUB: A line of storms has just moved through with gusty northwest winds. As storms move past, outflow at KCOS will turn more northeasterly. Both TAF sites will retain VCTS for several hours, with some brief lingering precipitation possible. Any storms that pass over the terminals could briefly reduce visibility to MVFR and produce strong outflow to around 25-30 knots. Storms will wane within a few hours, with winds weakening into the early morning. More scattered convection is expected this afternoon near both terminals along with gusty west winds. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO