Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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918 FXUS65 KPUB 050601 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1201 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overall, very nice July 4th evening expected for fireworks displays. - A storm or two on the Palmer and Raton late this afternoon/early evening; a slightly better chance of storms over the far eastern plains late tonight/early AM hours, especially far southeast corner. - A few more storms possible tomorrow afternoon along mtns/plains interface tomorrow afternoon. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the mountains through the long term period. - Temperatures will remain around seasonal values for much of the long term period, with a cool down Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 214 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Currently... Except for a few clouds over NW Teller County, skies were clear across the region. Temperatures were in the 70s to around 80 over the plains and valleys. Rest of today into tonight... Overall a very nice weather pattern is likely for a large majority, if not the entire region, during this period. Only chance of storms and slight chance at that) will be across the mtns/plains interface with the best chance of the Palmer Divide region and Raton Mesa region. Temps this evening will generally be around 70 during the firework shows. Winds are expected to be light. Later tonight, there will be a slightly better chance of some showers and tstorms over the eastern plains, especially over the far southeast corner. However, most of the remainder of the region will remain dry with temps falling into the 50s most of plains and 40s valleys. Tomorrow If you enjoyed this afternoon, you will likely enjoy tomorrow afternoon just as much. Max temps tomorrow will be at or maybe a degree or two cooler than todays max temps. The only concern is thunderstorms activity will likely be a bit more (low end scattered) over the greater mountains/plains interface region as we will be a bit more unstable and storms may be a tad stronger. For now SPC does not have the interface outlooked, but would not be too surprised if we see a marginal risk along the greater I-25 corridor region for tomorrow afternoon. As for the interior, it will be dry, along with the far eastern plains during the afternoon time period. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 214 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Friday Night - Wednesday: A relatively consistent pattern will be in place through the long term period. Ensemble model guidance is in good agreement that northwest flow will be in place over south central and southeastern Colorado as a ridge of high pressure sits across the western US and troughing persist across parts of the central and eastern US. Overall, forcing will be on the weaker side with this pattern, though with that said, modest orographic forcing is anticipated each day, along with periods of heightened forcing as shortwaves drift over the region. Given the more meager forcing, drier conditions are expected for much the area. The exception to this will be isolated to widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms mostly over the mountains each day given diurnal instability and the orographics in place - showers spilling out across the mountain valleys will also be possible. With that all said, a cold front is anticipated to drop southward during the Sunday timeframe, which will help in increasing precipitation chances for more of south central and southeastern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, most days will hover around seasonal values for early July. The exception to this will be Sunday and Monday, as cooler air fills in behind the aforementioned cold front, dropping the area to below seasonal values. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected over the forecast period for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. There will be thunderstorms developing over the southern I-25 corridor tomorrow afternoon and latest guidance hints at storms developing near the KPUB terminal. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible and MVFR to IFR conditions would develop if a thunderstorm develops overhead. Otherwise, the primary flow regime over the plains is southeasterly, gusting up to 20kts at time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SKELLY