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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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109 FXUS65 KPSR 180541 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1041 PM MST Wed Jul 17 2024 .Update...06z Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS... Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week, with most of the activity expected over the higher terrain areas. Thunderstorm chances for the lower deserts start to increase heading into this weekend and the beginning of next week as moisture increases. Above normal temperatures will continue, with excessive heat conditions across the lower deserts starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Objective analysis this afternoon reveals the subtropical high has started its slow migration westward, and now stretches from northeastern Arizona through central New Mexico. This high pressure system will continue to slowly move westward, moving over Arizona by the end of the workweek and then over Nevada by the end of the weekend. As the high moves over Arizona, there will be increased subsidence aloft causing slight drying in the low-to-mid levels of the atmosphere, with low-level mixing ratios generally below 9 g/kg across the lower deserts. Despite this slight drying, there will still be ample moisture to cause daily thunderstorms across the AZ higher terrain. Similar to the past couple of days, there will be marginal instability along with decent convective inhibition across the lower deserts. This will cause storms to struggle to survive into lower elevations as they move off the mountains. However, DCAPE values will be still be in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, which will support outflow boundaries coming from the storms in the higher terrain. HREF guidance continues to show around a 10-30% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph across the south- central AZ lower deserts this evening and on Thursday. As we approach this weekend and the first half of next week, a more active monsoon pattern looks to set up. The overall synoptic pattern becomes more favorable as the subtropical high positions itself over Nevada and a trough dives into the Plains, resulting in diffluent flow aloft. Additionally, PWATS will slowly rise and approach the 1.5" mark by the start of the weekend and the 1.6-1.7" range by the beginning of next week. Due to this increase in moisture we will see low-level mixing ratios rise above 10 g/kg. The combination of these factors will lead to increased thunderstorm activity across the region, including the lower deserts. Sometime Sunday-Tuesday currently looks to be the best time frame for thunderstorm activity across the lower deserts. The overall steering flow will be from the north/northeast and thus the overall flow pattern will be ideal for storms that develop over the Rim to move into the lower deserts. As mentioned in previous discussions, historically, the northeasterly flow events have led to severe weather materializing across the Phoenix metro area. Thus, the potential will be there for one day between the Sunday-Tuesday time frame to have an impactful convective event across the Phoenix area. This is something that still bears watching as we get closer. In addition to the thunderstorm chances for the coming week, heat will also be a big headline through at least the weekend. As mentioned previously the high pressure system will be moving overhead over the coming days. As this high moves overhead, it is also expected to strengthen from 593dm to 596-597dm by the end of the workweek and beginning of the weekend. Temperatures will gradually climb through the week, peaking on Saturday. Thursday will have moderate HeatRisk across the lower deserts with afternoon high temperatures between 108-113 degrees. Afternoon high temperatures will climb to 110-116 across the south-central AZ lower deserts and between 112-117 degrees across the western deserts on Friday and Saturday. This increase in temperatures will also result in widespread Major HeatRisk across the lower deserts. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in place for south- central and southwestern AZ for Friday and Saturday, and across southeastern CA and the Lower Colorado River Valley for Friday- Sunday. On Sunday, temperatures across the AZ lower deserts are expected to cool down by about 3-5 degrees due to increased low- level moisture and thus the overall HeatRisk drops into the moderate category whereas across the Lower Colorado River Valley through southeast CA, temperatures are not expected to cool off as much and thus areas of major HeatRisk will still persist. Therefore, given the very hot conditions that will be materializing through the weekend, it will be crucial for anyone partaking in outdoor activities to take all the necessary heat precautions to prevent any heat-related illnesses. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0540Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected during the near term as winds will continue follow diurnal trends through Thursday afternoon. Forecast confidence becomes much lower for the remainder of Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Hi-res guidance indicates a strong N/NE`rly oriented outflow traversing the metro between 02-05z tomorrow, potentially sparking numerous showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of metro terminals. However, ensembles probabilities for strong outflows during the previously-mentioned timeframe are not overly impressive (30-50%), while rain chances for metro Phoenix are only around 20%. SHRA and TSRA activity will largely be dependent on if any outflows come to fruition. If not outflows are realized, or if it is not as strong as current projections show, minimal to no aviation impacts may occur. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will continue follow familiar diurnal trends. Clear skies tonight will give way to FEW to occasionally SCT mid and high clouds tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sufficient moisture will remain in place to result in daily thunderstorm activity through the next several days, with activity mainly confined to the AZ high terrain through the end of the week. Thunderstorm chances start expanding into the lower elevations towards the end of the week, and especially by the beginning of next week. Gusty, erratic winds will be the biggest hazard with these thunderstorms, exacerbating issues on any ongoing wildfires and new starts. Aside from the thunderstorm winds, the typical afternoon upslope gustiness upwards of 20-25 mph will be common. MinRHs during the next several days will range between 15-25% with fair to good overnight recoveries between 30-60%. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ530. Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for AZZ531>546-548>555-559. CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ560>570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Berislavich AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Berislavich