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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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707 FXUS65 KPSR 130533 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1033 PM MST Fri Jul 12 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to result in excessive heat through Saturday. This ridge will finally migrate over the 4-Corners region this weekend, resulting in a noticeable increase in moisture levels and a slow cooling trend. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across mainly Arizona high terrain through Saturday with the best chances for storms reaching the lower deserts on Sunday. Drier conditions are expected to gradually spread over the area during the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon and evening is not looking nearly as active with showers and thunderstorms as yesterday was. Mid level water vapor satellite imagery shows some dry mid level air moving into AZ from NM. This and the still relatively limited surface moisture is resulting in limited instability this afternoon, especially across Southeast AZ where surface dew points are in the 40s and MLCAPE values of only 100 J/kg or so. Aside from isolated storms in south-central Pima county, most thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening is expected across northern AZ, as supported by the latest HREF. The latest HREF also supports similar conditions Saturday, with thunderstorm activity focused mainly over northern AZ high terrain and isolated activity near the US-MX border. In addition, steering flow has become more easterly today and will shift more southeasterly Saturday. With most of the activity over northern AZ and very little in southeast AZ, this is not a favorable steering flow to get many storms moving toward the South-Central AZ lower deserts. There are also no notable synoptic shortwaves or vorticity maximums in modeling to aid forcing over the region. All this said, there are still low chances of some spotty high-based ACCAS convection to develop over lower desert locations during the overnight and morning hours the next few days, especially with any mid-level gravity waves percolating above the stable PBL. Moisture and instability will be highest, although mostly capped, so cannot rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms over the western deserts, especially within JTNP and over any locally higher terrain features like the Kofas. Despite this "negative" thunderstorm outlook for the next couple of days, PBL moisture will continue to rise with nightly gulf surges and fluxes from Sonora thunderstorm complexes. PWAT values are forecast to rise up to 1.5-1.7" by Sunday and surface instability will increase as a result. Surface dew points will also to surge to around 70-75 degrees in Yuma and El Centro to around 60 degrees in the Phoenix area this weekend. Most of the GEFS membership has MLCAPE values up around 1000-1500 J/kg Sunday afternoon, but with still some modest CIN in place, while the EC ENS is slightly drier with notably lower MLCAPE. Sunday continues to look like the best shot and showers and storms in the lower deserts, with the higher instability. It still may come down to forcing and being able to overcome the cap. Latest NBM PoPs are up to 20-30% in South-Central AZ lower deserts Sunday and 50-60% in southern Gila County. While PoPs may not be anything prolific for the lower deserts it is important to remember that mesoscale influences, unresolvable by models this far out, can lead to things becoming more active. So, given the potential for high instability, any deep storm outflows or colliding outflows will likely be enough for lower desert convective development. Any strong thunderstorms Sunday will likely have the potential to produce strong to possibly severe wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. With the increase in low level moisture the next few days, the forecast high temperatures finally come down, bringing an end to the long stretch of excessive heat. The Excessive Heat Warning, however, was extended another day, through Saturday. Although, the forecast highs Saturday are expected to be a few degrees cooler than previous days and HeatRisk falls to Moderate, the higher dew points will make thing more muggy and morning low temperatures may be the warmest they will be during the stretch of heat. The forecast low for Phoenix Saturday morning is 94F. Heat indices in Southwest AZ and Southeast CA will push 114-118F Saturday afternoon. Starting Monday, guidance is still showing some drier air working from west to east through southern California into at least western portions of Arizona. There should still be enough moisture to work with across the eastern half of Arizona for another round of shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday, but instability is likely to be lower and thus the convective potential should be noticeably lower than Sunday. The drier air should then continue to spread eastward Tuesday into Wednesday mainly limiting any convection to the eastern Arizona high terrain. Temperatures should bottom out on around Monday, but highs are still forecast to be 2-4 degrees above normal. As the drier air works through the region during the middle part of next week, temperatures should slowly rise with highs likely topping 110 degrees over much of the lower deserts by next Wednesday or Thursday. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation weather concern through the TAF period will be the potential for temporary gustiness associated with a northeasterly thunderstorm outflow, which would reach KDVT/KSDL around 06Z or just after. This outflow will likely not cause a significant wind shift, as flow at the terminals is already favoring light NNE. Confidence in this same outflow reaching KPHX/KIWA is very low. A consequence of this outflow passing over the north valley may be some light shower development, though it will be scattered, and therefore not included in the TAF. Aside from any outflow impacts, winds will mostly be light (aob 8 kt sustained) overnight and settle out of the east eventually before shifting back to the west tomorrow afternoon. Gusts into the upper teens are expected to materialize by late tomorrow afternoon. Slantwise visibility reductions will continue to be a concern through tomorrow morning, particularly for KPHX/KIWA due to smoke moving over the area from fires in Pinal County. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to favor SE at KIPL, while a southerly direction is expected at KBLH. Gusts upwards of 20 kts will be possible at times at both sites. A shortwave disturbance is expected to move over the western deserts by tomorrow morning, which could induce some nocturnal convection. If this materializes (10-20% chance), the impacts would be confined to KIPL. The most likely outcome would be light showers and a period of gusty winds, but the direction is likely to remain SE`rly. Visibilities could temporarily be reduced to MVFR if light rain passes over the terminal. Otherwise, FEW-SCT mid to high clouds will continue throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very hot temperatures will be seen again today with thunderstorm chances steadily increasing over the eastern districts through the weekend as moisture improves. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend while humidity levels increase. Storms will initially produce only isolated wetting rain chances in eastern districts with areal coverage likely becoming far more widespread by Sunday. Minimum humidity values will fall to around 10-15% today, however by Sunday, values should struggle to fall below 20%. Some slight drying may wash over the districts by the middle of next week when minimum values fall closer to a 10-20% range. Occasional afternoon upslope gusts near 20 mph will be common the next few days, and the increase in thunderstorm activity will produce more frequent strong outflow winds across a larger expanse. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs Phoenix Yuma El Centro --------- ------- ----------- July 12 116 (2020) 119 (1939) 118 (1964) && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555- 559. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ560>570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Benedict/Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Salerno/Kuhlman CLIMATE...Kuhlman