746
FXUS66 KPQR 120308 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
808 PM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...EVENING UPDATE, for aviation weather.

.SYNOPSIS...The forecast for the next 5 to 7 days remains
largely unchanged. West to southwest flow aloft will maintain
seasonal conditions across the interior into early next week.
Cooler along the coast where occasional low clouds and onshore
flow will persist.
&&

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Wednesday)...The forecast for
the next week or so remains largely unchanged as a typical
summertime pattern remains in place across the region.
Temperatures along the coast are expected to top out in the
upper 60s to low 70s each day along with marine stratus
developing overnight and lingering into the morning hours.
Onshore flow is expected to remain weak but clouds could move up
the river towards Kelso each morning. There is a small chance
(20-40%) that clouds push/develop along the Columbia River near
the Portland/Vancouver metro. This would not bring any
meaningful impacts to the region, just a short period of
scattered clouds during the morning. Temperatures inland will
remain warm, peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s each day.
Probabilities for temperatures reaching 90 or greater within
the Willamette Valley are 60-80% Saturday, 50-60% on Sunday and
30-40% on Monday. In general, temperatures are not expected to
vary widely from day to day for the next week.

Outside of temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry into
early next week. Models show high pressure center over south Nevada
will slowly shift to the Four Corners region through Sunday. At the
same time, a cutoff low off the southern California coast will drift
northward. As such, will see bit of monsoonal moisture working its
way north from the Sierras into far south Oregon. At this point,
most ensemble guidance suggests the moisture and thunderstorm
chances will remain over south central and southeast Oregon. But,
there is still some small potential (less than 10%) that this
activity could come up the south Oregon Cascades and clip far
southeast Lane County on Sunday. For now, will leave out of
forecast, but watch model and satellite trends in models as we
approach Sunday. -Batz/Rockey

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure over the region will maintain VFR with
clear skies across the interior. Will have hazy or smoky skys with
may affect slantwise visibility this evening and again during the
day on Friday.

Onshore flow along the coast will assist in bringing another round
of MVFR to IFR marine stratus onshore, filling most of the coastal
areas by 06Z this evening. That stratus will push further inland,
into the Coast Range/Willapa valleys overnight. Will also see MVFR
status push up the Columbia, Valley, probably to KPDX/KVUO/KTTD by
13Z. At this time, am not expecting stratus to reach much into the
Willamette Valley.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the evening, with hazy skies to
south and east of KPDX affecting slantwise visibility a bit during
daylight hours. Gusty NW wind will ease back after sunset. Will see
low end MVFR marine stratus again over Clark County, and into the
KPDX/KTTD area from 12Z to 16Z Fri.                     /Rockey

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will maintain gusty northerly winds
through the rest of the week. Expect northerly winds 15-25 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt for most marine zones through Friday night,
with the strongest gusts over the outer waters (10-60 NM). Seas
will be wind-driven and choppy at times, building to 6-8 ft this
evening into tomorrow. There is high confidence for small craft
conditions through Friday night, so the Small Craft Advisory was
extended for most marine zones through 5 AM Saturday. The
exception would be the waters out 10 NM between Cape Shoalwater,
WA and Cape Falcon, OR and the Columbia River Bar, where small
craft conditions mostly end tonight. We could still see choppy,
small craft seas at times, but winds in these zones won`t be
strong enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory.     -Alviz

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251.

 Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Pzz251-253-
271>273. &&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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