575
FXUS66 KPQR 121019
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
315 AM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Overall, not much change in the overall pattern into next
week. West to southwest flow aloft will maintain
seasonal conditions across the interior, while stays bit cooler along
the coast where low clouds and onshore flow will persist. Will see
another warm up next week, with inland temperatures climbing back
into the lower to middle 90s.
&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday)...Onshore flow still in
control of the lowlands, especially along the coast. Widespread low
clouds along the coast this morning, with low clouds extending inland
to the valleys of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills. Also, low clouds
have been forming along the Columbia River up to near Kalama. Like
Thursday morning, suspect will see more low clouds form through the
Cowlitz Valley, and farther to the south across Clark County into the
east Portland metro area. Do not think these clouds will last long,
generally burning off by mid-morning across the inland areas. But,
low clouds along the coast will persist bit longer. Winds will kick
up again today, with gusts 20 to 25 mph along the Oregon coast for
the afternoon, and 15 to 22 mph in the Willamette Valley. Not much
change in this pattern through early next week, with areas of low
clouds at night/morning along the coast, and mostly clear inland.

Temperatures inland will remain warm, peaking in the upper 80s to low
90s each day. Probabilities for temperatures reaching 90 or greater
within the Willamette Valley rise again this weekend, with 60-80%
Saturday, 50-60% on Sunday and 30-40% on Monday. In general,
temperatures are not expected to vary widely from day to day for the
next week. That said, models still showing a boost in warmth towards
middle of next week, with highs into the middle 90s.

Outside of temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry into
early next week. Models show high pressure center over south Nevada
will slowly shift to the Four Corners region through Sunday. At the
same time, a cutoff low off the southern California coast will drift
northward. As such, will see bit of monsoonal moisture working its
way north from the Sierras into far south Oregon. At this point,
most ensemble guidance suggests the moisture and thunderstorm
chances will remain over south central and southeast Oregon. Will
keep the Lane County Cascades dry, but maintain some cumulus buildups
for that area.

Does appear that will see bit warmer temperatures next week,
especially Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance has been trending
warmer, but still, afternoon highs expected to be lower to middle 90s
for the interior lowlands of the Willamette Valley, Columbia Gorge,
and lower valleys of the Cascade foothills.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure over the area will maintain VFR
conditions under clear skies for inland terminals through the TAF
period. Northwesterly winds under 10 kt inland and 10-15 kt along
the coast this morning, expected to strengthen to gusts of 20-25
kt inland and 25-30 kt along the coast by 17-19Z Friday.

Marine stratus has returned early this morning, bringing IFR/MVFR
CIGs along the coast, but should clear and improve to VFR by
19-20Z Friday. Again, just like yesterday, expect MVFR/IFR
conditions to return along the coast around 03-06Z Saturday.

There is a 10-20% chance that the marine stratus will filter into
the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area via the Lower Columbia River
Valley between 12-17Z Friday. As of 10Z Friday, the stratus has
pushed eastward as far as KKLS. With improved confidence due to a
cooler morning, expect some stratus (with MVFR conditions) around
KPDX and KTTD for an hour or two between 12-17Z Friday. Otherwise,
another day of VFR conditions for inland terminals.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds through the TAF period under
clear skies. Northwest winds through the period, with winds
strengthening again in the afternoon, with gusts up to around 20
kt by 22-23Z Friday.
-JH

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will maintain gusty northerly winds
through the rest of the week. Expect northerly winds 15-25 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt for most marine zones through Saturday
evening, with the strongest gusts over the outer waters (10-60
NM). Seas will be wind-driven and choppy at times, building to 6-8
ft throughout the day and into tomorrow. There is high confidence
for small craft conditions through Saturday evening, so the Small
Craft Advisory has been extended for most marine zones through 5
PM Saturday. The exception would be the waters out 10 NM between
Cape Shoalwater, WA and Cape Falcon, OR and the Columbia River
Bar. We could still see choppy, small craft seas at times, but
winds in these zones won`t be strong enough to warrant a Small
Craft Advisory.
-JH/Alviz

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ210-251.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ252-253-
     271>273.
&&

$$
www.weather.gov/portland

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