570
FXUS65 KPIH 170855
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
255 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a H5 low moving NE along
the PacNW Coast as a series of shortwave troughs propagate east
across the NRN Rockies. As this trough moves onshore and
ultimately passes over NRN Idaho for Thursday, this will lead to
continued isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
through Thursday as temperatures remain steady at above normal
levels with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s each day. While
very isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
this morning, look for activity to increase this afternoon before
subsiding this evening with the HREF model probability of thunder
highlighting two more active corridors for convection today. These
would be around the Magic Valley region south into Utah and
Nevada and across the Upper Snake Plain and ERN Highlands where
the HREF model shows a 30-70% chance of thunder. The latest NBM
model run is about half of that in that 15-35% range. Elsewhere,
chances will remain more isolated but still regionwide in that
5-15% range.

For tomorrow, look for much of the same with again around a 5-35%
chance of thunderstorms on the NBM across CNTRL and ERN Idaho
with best chances outside the CNTRL Mountains. Thunderstorms both
days will support a mix of wet and dry storms given PWATs in that
0.50- 0.80" range with stronger storms capable of producing brief
heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts to 30-50 mph with locally
higher gusts to around 50-60 mph. Conditions outside of convection
will remain predominantly dry through Thursday. MacKay

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.
Ridge over the four corners region will slowly retrograde into
the western Great Basin over the extended. This means continued
hot weather with mainly isolated thunderstorm chances through much
of the extended forecast. Probably not looking at heat products
as the more intense heat will be slightly west of our region. 13

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday.
There could be some smoke around this morning, best chances are
at SUN and BYI, but we haven`t seen significant reductions to
visibility so far. For now, reductions look to be vfr everywhere.
The steering winds go southerly this afternoon which should carry
the smoke away from all of our TAF locations for the afternoon. 13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While under the continued influence of a ridge of high pressure
which will keep temperatures above normal and conditions
predominantly dry, moisture working overtop this ridge feature
will continue to support a mix of isolated to scattered showers
and wet/mostly dry thunderstorms each day. Best chances for
scattered coverage will exist across FWZ 427 today, 413 and 427 on
Thursday, and 413 on Friday before coverage decreases to more
isolated chances for the weekend into early next week with best
chances in the mountains. Thunderstorms each day will support a
mix of wet and dry storms given PWATs in that 0.50-0.80" range
with stronger storms capable of producing brief heavy rain, small
hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts to 30-50 mph with locally
higher gusts to around 50-60 mph. Afternoon highs across our
lower elevations each day will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s
with afternoon humidities bottoming out in the teens and 20s. With
a H5 ridge axis more or less overhead each day through next week,
synoptic winds will remain light with wind gusts peaking in that
20-25 mph range. MacKay

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Given increased wildfire activity across the Intermountain West,
wildfire smoke will continue to lead to an increase in hazy and
smoky skies. The latest HRRR-Smoke model shows widespread smoke
this morning lifting NE later today as predominant SW flow shifts
overhead. This will lead to continued impacts from wildfire smoke
across CNTRL Idaho and portions of ERN Idaho as SRN Idaho begins
to see an improvement. The highest concentrations of smoke locally
will be as a result of the Bench Lake Fire SW of Stanley. As of 3
AM this morning, air quality regionwide remains in that
"Moderate" to "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" categories. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ427.

&&

$$