105
FXUS65 KPIH 052004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.
Our area is currently under high pressure with weak northwest
flow aloft as the high pressure ridge axis is just off the Pacific
coast. High pressure will strengthen slightly through the period
bringing continued dry conditions, overall clear skies, and
gradual warming. Winds will be slightly breezy this afternoon,
gusts of around 15 to 25 mph, as a weak trough passes over
central Montana. Temperatures increase this afternoon over
yesterday becoming around normal. Saturday another wave passes
over Montana, this time over eastern Montana. Expect wind gusts of
around 30 to 40 mph across the area Saturday afternoon. Also, in
the afternoon Saturday look for a 10 to 20 percent chance of
mostly mountain thunderstorms over the Island Park area.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon will rise slightly from Friday
becoming a few degrees above normal.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
Following a dry cold front on Saturday, Sunday will be the coolest
day of the long term period with highs in the the 70s/80s and N/NE
winds throughout the day. Further to our west, a strong H5 ridge of
high pressure will continue its progression east with the H5 ridge
axis shifting overhead midweek. As a result, the warmest
temperatures so far this year will build into our region with highs
peaking in the 90s to low 100s, potentially challenging daily
records and all-time records. Look for EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES
issuance over the coming days followed by either HEAT ADVISORIES or
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS dependent on the latest HeatRisk. Overnight
lows will offer some relief from the heat, generally reaching down
in the 50s/60s with some upper 60s and lower 70s further south.

As this H5 ridge axis begins to shift east late next week,
temperatures are expected to peak as very slight chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms return back to the forecast. This
is associated with weak monsoonal flow into SRN Idaho in addition to
an approaching H5 trough building in from the NE Pacific but there
is low confidence on the exact details at this point. Winds will
remain light through much of next week, increasing for Friday and
next weekend.
MacKay

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions from high pressure bringing
slightly breezy winds, very dry conditions, and mostly clear
skies. Winds pick up Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35
mph likely.
Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue today as a
passing H5 shortwave trough in Montana supports wind gusts up to
around 30 mph with MinRH values in the teens. For tomorrow, another
passing trough will support stronger wind gusts around 30-40 mph
with MinRH values in the single digits and teens across much of the
area. In addition, there will be about a 10-20% chance of isolated
showers and thunderstorms around Island Park during the afternoon
and evening hours. As a result of this increase in wind and very dry
conditions, a RED FLAG WARNINGS now replaced the previous FIRE
WEATHER WATCH and will be in effect from 1200 to 2100. Behind this
departing system, winds will be out of the N/NE for Sunday with
slightly cooler temperatures ahead of next weeks warmup. Highs
midweek will peak in the 90s to low 100s which will be around 10-20
degrees above normal for this time of year as winds remain light
with MinRH values in the single digits and teens each day. Weak
signal late next week on the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in addition to an uptick in wind which will continue
to need to be monitored over the coming week.
MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$