076
FXUS61 KPHI 020520
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
120 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall out across the area on Wednesday, then
move offshore and to the south on Thursday. Dry high pressure
will build into the region Friday and remain in control through
much of the weekend, providing seasonable temperatures and
tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more humid, and unsettled
conditions will return into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Some showers will continue overnight with some thunder. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Latest guidance suggests this frontal boundary will slow down
and possibly become quasi-stationary across southern New Jersey
and the southern Delmarva come daybreak Wednesday. As a result,
additional showers and and a few thunderstorms may develop
across this corridor through Wednesday morning before gradually
shifting offshore throughout the day. PWAT values in this narrow
corridor will still be near 2 inches, suggesting heavy
downpours will still be possible for at least the first half of
the day. Skies will be overcast to mostly cloudy to start the
day with gradual clearing in the afternoon from west to east.
High temperatures will be in the 80s, with some areas that see
sunshine in the afternoon further north and west likely seeing
the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Any thunderstorms Wednesday will be located offshore and to our
south by Wednesday night. Low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A few thunderstorms possible on Thursday, then dry, seasonable,
and pleasant conditions expected for the Independence Day
holiday.

An upper trough axis will push through the region Thursday
through Thursday night followed by strengthening ridging Friday
and through the weekend. A cold front will push offshore on
Thursday, which is anticipated to be accompanied by some
isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms, mainly northwest of
I-95. There could be some isolated severe thunderstorms given
the cooling mid levels and steepening mid level lapse rates,
however widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Localized damaging wind gusts and hail possible with these
storms Thursday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
80s, though we should finally see dewpoints mixing out to
relieve us from the persistent humidity we`ve been experiencing
as of late. Any thunderstorms will quickly diminish into the
evening as the front pushes offshore. Lows will be in the 60s.

For Independence Day, a rather pleasant and dry early summer
day is forecast. The strengthening ridge across the region will
inhibit any thunderstorm chances. The post frontal regime will
translate to temperatures a few degrees below normal (highs in
the low to mid 80s) and dewpoints mixing out quite nicely into
the 50s under sunny skies. A great day for any outdoor holiday
festivities! Friday night will be the coolest night of the
stretch, with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s and dry
air making for a very pleasant early summer night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and seasonable conditions will continue through much of the
weekend, however an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
Sunday afternoon.

The broad ridging will dominate the region over the weekend,
Which will keep convection surpressed and temperatures near
normal. Saturday will be a guarantied dry day, and another very
pleasant one similar to Friday as the surface high slides
overhead. High temperatures remaining in the mid 80s under sunny
skies and dewpoints mixing out nicely once again to provide us
with some low humidity. By Sunday, high pressure will be located
offshore, resulting in some return flow and thus a slight
increase in temperatures and humidity levels compared to the
previous days. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees both nights.

The return flow beginning Sunday will open a window for some
isolated thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening hours,
mainly northwest of I-95 where some upper diffluence will begin
to influence the area. By and large, most areas should remain
dry though.

Return flow will continue into early next week as upper ridging
shifts out to sea and some troughing develops near the Great
Lakes. This will result in more unsettled conditions developing
again, with daily diurnally driven chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Any severe threats remain to be seen. Expect
temperatures to start trending slightly above normal (highs near
90 degrees and lows near 70 degrees) with increasing humidity
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...Visibility restrictions will remain possible in
residual rain showers for all terminals. Showers could continue
through 10-12Z. Thunder threat has diminished, so have removed
VCTS from all terminals. As of 05Z, all terminals are primarily
either MVFR or VFR, however have added in a TEMPO group between
06-10Z for all terminals except RDG/ABE where some lower
ceilings may become possible. Otherwise, light winds generally
out of the westerly direction around 5 kt or less. Low-moderate
confidence overall.

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings may linger through the morning hours
for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY. Improvement to VFR is
expected at all terminals into the afternoon hours with
lingering ceilings lifting and scattering. A slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, however confidence is
not high enough to include at any terminal at this time. West-
southwest winds around 5-8 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night...VFR with a few high clouds, otherwise SKC.
Light winds favoring a westerly component around 5 kt or less.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible.

Friday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible near ABE/RDG.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue until early Wednesday
morning. There will also be showers/storms moving over the
waters and these could produce localized wind gusts over 40
knots. Winds and seas subside below advisory criteria by
daybreak Wednesday. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms
possible off the Southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...No marine hazards expected.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, winds go more west/southwesterly and lighten to
around 10 MPH or less. Seas decrease as well within the surf
zone to around 2 feet. There remains a 1 foot 9 second swell
from the ESE along with a frontal boundary just offshore. As a
result, we will have a MODERATE risk for rip currents on
Wednesday.

For Thursday, winds remain light around 10 MPH or less out of
the west in the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas decrease further, to around 1 foot. The ESE swell will be
diminishing to a 1 ft 8 second swell and the frontal boundary
will be further offshore. As a result, we have a LOW risk for
rip currents for Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Gorse/MJL
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/MJL/Staarmann
MARINE...MJL/Staarmann