Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
323 FXUS66 KPDT 121701 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1001 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Mostly light and variable winds with the exception of YKM/DLS with each seeing sustained winds of 10-12 kts and DLS seeing gusts to 22 kts. CIGs will remain SKC with the occasional FEW250 later this afternoon/evening. Bennese/90 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1035 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...High pressure is starting to build over the PacNW and is expected to last through early next week. Temperatures will gradually trend upward as a result, peaking on Sunday, with highs up to 105 degrees possible across the lower Basin (20-25% chance). A Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday through Monday for the Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, and the foothills of the northern Blues. HeatRisk shows admittedly marginal risk for advisory threshold heat Saturday and Monday, but with highs wavering around 100 degrees, felt that it was necessary to broadly advertise the heat through the whole weekend, even if some days are technically borderline. Only other concern with high pressure in place will be an uptick in winds across the Cascade Gaps on Sunday, which will be primarily thermally-driven. The Kittitas Valley, in particular, may see gusts up to 40 mph on Sunday afternoon (60-70%). RHs as of now do not look to reach critical levels, but fire risk will be elevated nonetheless, given how hot and dry it will be over the weekend. Evans/74 LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Models continue to exhibit a fair amount of disagreement, especially beyond the midweek. One feature of (relative) certainty is the arrival of a shortwave trough to our northeast around Tuesday morning. As of now, guidance keeps us dry from this system, however a slightly more southward track could bring a chance of slight thunderstorms to the eastern mountains. Winds are almost certain to shift more north and easterly as a result of this system tracking as is currently projected, which may complicate firefighting efforts for current and future incidents. Temps look to cool off by Wednesday, however forecast confidence is low, as ensembles are divided in depicting the synoptic pattern, differing between a benign zonal flow or bringing in a trough that could spawn thunderstorms from central Oregon up through to the eastern mountains. Will have to see how models evolve over subsequent runs before speaking of the forecast beyond next Wednesday with too much confidence. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 98 66 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 97 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 99 66 103 68 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 98 68 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 100 66 104 69 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 95 69 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 96 55 98 56 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 93 61 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 94 60 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 97 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507. WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...90