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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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565 FXUS66 KPDT 122319 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 419 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours outside of BDN/RDM/YKM where localized smoke impacts could occasionally bring MVFR conditions. Otherwise, high clouds, generally FEW to BKN or clear skies are expected. Breezy winds should begin to taper off during the evening outside of DLS where breezy winds will persist through tomorrow. Breezes then return for PDT/RDM/ALW tomorrow afternoon, similar to today with gusts around 20-25 knots. Goatley/87 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...An increase in cumulus development noted over the Blue Mountains this afternoon. This remains the favored location for any shower or storm development. Mesoanalysis continues to demonstrate CIN over the area, though this will continue to breakdown for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. The best storm development is favored east of the forecast area, with a 5-10% chance for development over the Blue Mountains today. Otherwise, gusty to breezy winds will remain over much of the area through the evening hours. Tuesday will see the passage of a trough through the forecast area. This system will bring another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, with instability parameters showing more potential for development (20-30% chance), especially across Wallowa County in Oregon. Precipitable waters across the area expected to see impact ranges from 0.8" to 1.2". This could result in some wetting rain potential with activity, though lightning could still impact fire conditions. Analysis demonstrates a 10-20% chance for 0.25" of QPF with Tuesday`s showers. Passage of the trough will bring cooler conditions across the area, with temperatures falling to 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. Wednesday will see more stable and dry conditions. Branham/76 LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...Low pressure is expected to advance towards the forecast area by Wednesday night. This is favored to result in showers over central Oregon during the overnight hours. Weak instability noted overnight. While showers are mostly included in the forecast, an isolated nocturnal thunderstorm cannot be ruled out and the potential will continue to be monitored (currently the probability for nocturnal thunder is around 5-15%). Moisture and instability increase through the day across central and eastern Oregon, with showers and thunderstorm coverage increasing (thunderstorm development probability increases to near 40% by Thursday afternoon). Instability should improve by Friday, though isolated thunderstorms remain across much of the area for Friday as the area of low pressure remains off the WA/OR coast. Drier conditions then return to the area over the weekend and continue through Monday, with most activity confined to the Cascades (5-15% chance of development). Temperatures generally remain below normal (0-10 degrees) through the long term. Overall, clusters are in good agreement with the progression of the weather through the long term, with only slight variations on timing and intensity. Branham/76 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 53 79 50 82 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 58 83 55 86 / 10 10 0 0 PSC 61 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 53 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 58 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 55 80 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 78 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 81 48 84 / 40 30 10 0 GCD 52 83 48 85 / 40 10 0 0 DLS 58 77 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...87