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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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169 FXUS66 KPDT 131117 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 417 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Updated aviation discussion .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The center of a broad trough will envelop our forecast area for much of the day today, making for continued breezy conditions as well as some intermittent shower activity across the far eastern border of our CWA. Some isolated storms may develop across the eastern mountains early this morning and during the day today, but given the colder air pouring into the area what with the trough overhead, current thinking is that any storm activity today will be very isolated. CAMs generally suggest a band of showers lifting out of the SW through eastern Grant County and eventually up through Wallowa County before exiting our area by the late afternoon. Guidance suggests that Wallowa County would be the most likely candidate to see storms, but with early morning temps reading in the mid 50s and models depicting so-so MUCAPE, thinking that the storm threat will overall be isolated. Elsewhere, expect winds through the gaps to gust over 30 mph at times, with 20-30 mph gusts spilling over into the Basin. RHs will remain elevated in light of the cooler air mass advecting in, however. Wednesday looks to be quiet as transitory ridging briefly establishes itself overhead, before another low moves in on Thursday. The convective setup for this system looks better than today`s, however shear is very weak as the low sits between more amplified flow to the south and north, which will eventually bring us a more long-term, broad low over the coming weekend. Did mention a chance for storms across an area stretching from central Oregon through the eastern mountains during the day Thursday, but given the paltry bulk shear, any storms that do form look to be pulse-like in nature. Should note that confidence in Red Flag conditions for the area are low on Thursday, however, as storm chances will be prevalent, but the synoptic set-up along with the meager depiction of precip across deterministic guidance doesn`t exactly inspire confidence on critical fire weather conditions. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Long term forecast will be determined by a large scale closed upper level low pressure system off the coast. Models have this system developing late this week and then stalling off the coast before moving inland around late Tuesday or Wednesday. This will place the forecast area under a southerly flow with some instability leading to some initial showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday the NBM reduces instability and limits showers mainly along the Cascade crest. This reduction in instability could be a little underdone under this pattern but for now will remain in line with the NBM. Temperatures look to remain seasonable through the extended time period. && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS (Previous Discussion)...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. There will continue to be some smoke concerns mainly impacting BDN/RDM/YKM at times mainly with smoke aloft. Winds will generally be less than 10kts through the early morning then becoming 5-15kts through the evening. DLS will be a little stronger with 15-20kts winds and gusts around 30kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 79 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 83 55 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 PSC 85 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 84 52 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 83 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 82 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 78 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 20 LGD 81 48 84 52 / 20 10 0 10 GCD 84 48 85 52 / 10 0 0 20 DLS 77 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...91