398
FXUS66 KPDT 131744
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1044 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are forecast for the next
24 hours, though smoke from area wildfires may produce
localized/temporary MVFR conditions at BDN/RDM/YKM. Confidence in
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs is too low (<50%) to mention in TAFs.

FEW-BKN mid/high clouds will diminish through the day.

Winds will consist of typical onshore westerly gap flow, breezy
at DLS with intermittent gusts elsewhere. Plunkett/86

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The center of a broad trough
will envelop our forecast area for much of the day today, making
for continued breezy conditions as well as some intermittent
shower activity across the far eastern border of our CWA. Some
isolated storms may develop across the eastern mountains early
this morning and during the day today, but given the colder air
pouring into the area what with the trough overhead, current
thinking is that any storm activity today will be very isolated.

CAMs generally suggest a band of showers lifting out of the SW
through eastern Grant County and eventually up through Wallowa
County before exiting our area by the late afternoon. Guidance
suggests that Wallowa County would be the most likely candidate to
see storms, but with early morning temps reading in the mid 50s and
models depicting so-so MUCAPE, thinking that the storm threat will
overall be isolated. Elsewhere, expect winds through the gaps to
gust over 30 mph at times, with 20-30 mph gusts spilling over into
the Basin. RHs will remain elevated in light of the cooler air mass
advecting in, however.

Wednesday looks to be quiet as transitory ridging briefly
establishes itself overhead, before another low moves in on
Thursday. The convective setup for this system looks better than
today`s, however shear is very weak as the low sits between more
amplified flow to the south and north, which will eventually bring
us a more long-term, broad low over the coming weekend. Did
mention a chance for storms across an area stretching from central
Oregon through the eastern mountains during the day Thursday, but
given the paltry bulk shear, any storms that do form look to be
pulse-like in nature. Should note that confidence in Red Flag
conditions for the area are low on Thursday, however, as storm
chances will be prevalent, but the synoptic set-up along with the
meager depiction of precip across deterministic guidance doesn`t
exactly inspire confidence on critical fire weather conditions.
Evans/74

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Long term forecast will be
determined by a large scale closed upper level low pressure system
off the coast. Models have this system developing late this week
and then stalling off the coast before moving inland around late
Tuesday or Wednesday. This will place the forecast area under a
southerly flow with some instability leading to some initial
showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Sunday through
Tuesday the NBM reduces instability and limits showers mainly
along the Cascade crest. This reduction in instability could be a
little underdone under this pattern but for now will remain in
line with the NBM. Temperatures look to remain seasonable through
the extended time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  55  86  57 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  85  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  84  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  83  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  82  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  44  82  51 /   0   0   0  30
LGD  81  47  85  51 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  84  48  85  53 /  10   0   0  20
DLS  77  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...86