570
FXUS61 KPBZ 101207
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
807 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low probability showers remain possible with a limited severe
threat through this afternoon, otherwise the exiting hurricane
remnants will introduce temperature moderation tonight into
Thursday.

Well above normal temperature is favored Friday through the
weekend with high pressure limiting precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hi-res model trends continue bearish outlook on convective
  development in area, keeping most storms north and east.
- If storms can develop, low probability exits for damaging wind
  and tornado.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Remnants of former Hurricane Beryl will continue to lift
northeast through the Great Lakes today as its low center
remains west of the forecast area. Latest analysis shows the
elevated warm front lifting north of the region and the region
being dry slotted while the surface cold front approaches from
the west. Outside of a few showers entering far eastern Ohio
ahead of the surface, the morning period will likely be dry with
the surface cold front nearing the WV panhandle.

Hi-res models continue to be bearish of convective development
during the afternoon ahead of the cold front (favoring locales
farther north and east). 6hr probabilities of more than 0.10" of
rain barely reach 30% in northwest PA, with lower values
elsewhere. But a conditional severe risk remains a topic of
discussion; IF storms do develop (focusing on the 1pm-6pm time
frame), there is a risk for damaging wind and tornadoes in
portions of northwest PA where instability can be maximized
along with strong shear (both 0-6km and 0-1km).

The upper shortwave will exit northeast overnight as flow aloft
briefly becomes zonal and sees an influx of mid-level moisture
that is wrapped around the low center. Better chances for rain
showers exist tonight for portions of eastern Ohio into
northwest PA result from this feature. Otherwise, most locations
are unlikely to see rain while temperature falls closer to daily
averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering moisture may result in an isolated to scattered
  afternoon shower Thursday.

- Temperature moderation will be brief as highs return to above
  normal levels Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The main trough axis will remain parked over the lower Ohio
River Valley Thursday into Friday, maintaining southwest flow
over the region. Residual moisture and cool advection on the
backside of Wednesday`s exiting low will offer morning cloud
cover, low probability showers (favoring northwest PA) and more
seasonable temperature.

High pressure and column warm advection will quickly return
plenty of insolation to the region Friday as highs climb 5 to 10
degrees above the daily average. The main source of uncertainty
for the day will be the degree of cirrus coverage working NW
from a surge of tropical moisture/convection entering the
Carolina Region. This could limit diurnal heating a bit for
locations across northeast WV and the Laurel Highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in well above normal temperature leading to
  increased heat risks through the middle of next week.

- Early indications suggests increased precipitation chances
  during the period with non-zero severe weather potential.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper level pattern will be relatively unchanged Saturday
as a low pressure system traverses the New England region and
weak shortwaves drop through the western Great Lakes. In
between, the Upper Ohio River Valley is expected to be hot and
stagnate as low 90s temperature becomes likely for most
locations.

Ensembles favor a continuation of those hot and potentially
humid conditions to persist through next week, but this comes
with high variance tied to shortwave movement. Models suggest
shortwave movement will occur sometime Sunday into early next
week (or potential multiple waves) that lower heights over the
region and introduce increased precipitation chances. Details
are too noisy to discern, but the pattern is emblematic of a
series of MCSs traversing the Great Lakes with potential
impacts/timing (and alterations to temperature) being influenced
by previous days outcomes. This pattern recognition is noted in
various AI weather models, meaning that there is a non-zero
chance for hazardous weather (with this meteorologist leaning
towards multiple days of at least a damaging wind threat). Will
mention concern in HWO along with potential heat to aid decision
makers to monitor the latest trends.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing predominantly north and
west of the local area this morning in association with the
remnants of Hurricane Beryl as they pass by to the northwest of
the area today. This is where the activity should generally
remain today as a dry slot makes its way into the local area,
keeping overall precip chances low at area terminals. As such,
left mention of rain and thunder out of most TAFs, except ZZV
where showers at the start of the TAF period are currently
departing to the north, and at FKL/DUJ where there is a 30-40%
chance late this afternoon. Any restrictions this afternoon and
evening will be limited to showers and storms as VFR is
expected to prevail outside of convection.

Ensembles have high confidence (>80% chance of MVFR) in
widespread ceiling restrictions building in overnight, including
60-80% probabilities for IFR at FKL/DUJ/BVI and 30-50% at all
other terminals except ZZV. Low cigs linger through the end of
the current TAF period, likely not lifting/scattering until
later Thursday morning or afternoon. Residual showers on the
backside of the general trough system may also linger into
Thursday morning for eastern OH/northwest PA.

Southwest winds will be gusty today as prevailing speeds
increase to 15-20 knots with gusts as high as 30-35 knots.
Winds will be slow to settle tonight due to a lingering tight
pressure gradient associated with the passing surface low. Gusts
to 20-25 knots could continue through overnight hours until
winds finally beginning to settle early Thursday morning.


.Outlook...
Ensembles favor VFR returning to the area Thursday afternoon
and staying in place thereafter.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak