Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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427 FXUS61 KPBZ 050715 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance will set the stage for a round of scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, offering low probabilities for localized flash flooding and gusty wind. Dry weather with seasonable temperature will return Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - More widespread coverage is expected today, with damaging wind and flash flood threats remaining possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A few showers across the area will weaken through dawn. Expect some minor issues along roadways from last nights heavy rainfall. A few instances of fog is also possible where the showers have exited. The morning is expected to be quiet through 16Z. A more organized shortwave and surface low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will lift a stationary boundary northward as a warm front into the afternoon. A late-day cold front will move through the region. Breaks in cloud coverage and weak cooling aloft should help destabilize the otherwise unchanged environment (modest CAPE, moderate shear, weak lapse rates, high PWAT values). The expectation is for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and evening ahead of the boundary, with damaging wind and localized flash flooding threats possible. Improved forcing and instability should be negated by stronger storm flow to leave the overall flash flood threat similar to that seen today. The one limiting factor through the coming day is the strength of the forcing after yesterdays activity seemed to hit the northern portion of the forecast area and this may mean that the I-70 corridor and south will see the most impactful weather with the northern activity being more isolated and the south seeing scattered strong to severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Passage of the surface cold front and upper shortwave will diminish storm chances by late tonight. A few showers will likely continue through 06Z but the severe threat will likely wane. Dry and seasonable weather returning on Saturday and into Saturday night will allow for more seasonal-like temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence remains high in dry weather continuing into the new week as surface ridging remains over the Ohio Valley and upper troughing persists over the Central Plains. Temperatures should remain near-normal on Sunday, but increasing return flow and warm advection on Monday ahead of the next low pressure system will drive daily highs back above-normal. Ensembles indicate more active weather Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure crosses and upper troughing sets up across the East. High pressure will return for Thursday with most activity being a slight chance or less but most likely dry. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continues to cross the area early this morning. Brief vsby restrictions have generally dropped to 2SM as these roll over terminals. IFR cigs are expected to overspread the area from west to east in the next several hours, eventually lifting back to VFR by late morning. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms with occasional restrictions is expected Friday afternoon and evening with a more robust shortwave and in advance of a crossing cold front. Storms look to remain scattered/isolated, with some uncertainty on exact timing at specific locations. Have continued to use PROB30s for this threat. Cigs should lower into MVFR/IFR again Friday night with lingering moisture, eventually lifting Saturday morning. .Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through the weekend with high pressure. The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with our next system Monday into Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...Rackley