Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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212 FXUS61 KPBZ 060704 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After isolated lingering showers exit early this morning, dry weather returns through Monday with temperature rising well above normal by Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With the trough still to the west, a few showers or storm are still possible to develop through the predawn hours. Much of the potential should be diminished by 12Z. Passage of a surface trough and upper wave will diminish precipitation chances west to east and offer a slight reprieve from the warm, muggy conditions by dawn. Heading into the coming day, drier southwest flow and ridging at the surface will support dry weather today. Lingering morning stratus clouds are expected to break up with a scattered to broken cumulus field developing in the late morning to early afternoon; weak cool advection plus the cloud cover should aid temperature returning to more seasonal values. More notably for some, drier air will mix to the surface and bring relief to the region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather persists. - Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region. Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat indices above advisory criteria remain low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence in widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings has decreased as clouds continue to clear from west to east across the area. As a result, have pushed back onset of cig restrictions, which will likely be fairly brief (around 6 hours). IFR is most likely at FKL/DUJ/MGW, with MVFR or low VFR expected elsewhere. Early clearing may also promote more fog coverage than previously expected, but confidence in this is low. Fog remains most likely at ZZV and MGW. Return to VFR is expected by 15z with diurnal heating and building high pressure. Westerly winds will gust to near 20kts during the afternoon. .Outlook... VFR conditions should persist into Sunday under high pressure. The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with our next system Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frazier/Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...Rackley/88