Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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943 FXUS61 KPBZ 061135 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 735 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slightly less humid afternoon today in wake of a cold front with lots of sunshine. Dry weather returns through Monday with temperatures rising well above normal by Monday afternoon. 90 degree weather returns next week along with warmer overnights. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With the trough still to the west, a few showers or storm are still possible to develop through the dawn hours. Much of the potential should be diminished by 12Z. Passage of a surface trough and upper wave will diminish precipitation chances west to east and offer a slight reprieve from the warm, muggy conditions by dawn. Heading into the coming day, drier southwest flow and ridging at the surface will support dry weather today. Lingering morning stratus clouds are expected to break up with a scattered to broken cumulus field developing in the late morning to early afternoon; weak cool advection plus the cloud cover should aid temperature returning to more seasonal values. More notably for some, drier air will mix to the surface and bring relief to the region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather persists. - Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region. Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat indices above advisory criteria remain low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence forecast. IFR clouds are possible through 14Z at a few airports in wake of the cold front. After 14Z...VFR weather returns the balance of the forecast. DUJ and FKL could keep MVFR CIGS through 15Z if they don`t mix out like other airports. Wind will be west today with gusts around 20kts. .Outlook... VFR weather through Monday. A chance of MVFR or lower brief flight restrictions are possible starting Tuesday with the next weather system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frazier/Shallenberger/98 NEAR TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger AVIATION...McMullen