Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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814 FXUS61 KPBZ 061355 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 955 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather expected through Monday with temperatures rising well above normal by Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Drier southwest flow and sfc high pressure building in from the west will support dry weather today. Scattered cumulus will gradually diminish under increasing subsidence. Drier air will mix to the surface and bring relief to the region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather persists. - Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region. Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat indices above advisory criteria remain low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence forecast. IFR clouds are possible through 14Z at a few airports in wake of the cold front. After 14Z...VFR weather returns the balance of the forecast. DUJ and FKL could keep MVFR CIGS through 15Z if they don`t mix out like other airports. Wind will be west today with gusts around 20kts. .Outlook... VFR weather through Monday. A chance of MVFR or lower brief flight restrictions are possible starting Tuesday with the next weather system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger AVIATION...Rackley/88/McMullen