Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
918 FXUS61 KPBZ 061645 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1245 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather expected through Monday with temperatures rising well above normal by Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sfc high pressure building in from the west will support dry weather today. Scattered cumulus will gradually diminish under increasing subsidence later this afternoon. Notable decrease in dewpoint s observed early this afternoon as drier aloft has mixed to the surface, bringing a little relief to the region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in cloud cover, fog development will be possible both Sunday and Monday mornings, especially along river valleys. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper trough deepens over the Central Plains. With h500 heights at or above 590dm and h850 temperatures around 20C by Monday, daytime highs should be in the 90s with apparent temperatures in the mid 90s. Latest ensemble guidance shows around a 60% chance of going above 90F on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning output supports this. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast. Scattered cu will wane around sunset leaving cirrus clouds. There are low probs in the gridded LAMP and NBM /less than 40%/ of MVFR fog 3-5SM developing south of I-70. For now, left it out of the forecast given the amount of mixing of dry air today and using parcel trajectories from this morning. VFR weather carries through Sunday. The CU rule gives scattered high based cu once again, with possible short duration broken clouds near Lake Erie. Wind will light less than five knots from the southwest. .Outlook... Monday...VFR Tuesday - Thursday: MVFR weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time VFR. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88 LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88 AVIATION...McMullen