Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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442 FXUS61 KPBZ 062201 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 601 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is anticipated to continue into Monday under high pressure. Fog potential increases early Sunday morning north of Pittsburgh, PA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today. - Fog potential increases early Sunday morning with radiational cooling, especially for areas north of Pittsburgh. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry, quiet weather will continue across the region under high pressure. Overnight low temperatures will be near the climatological average (low to mid-60s) across the region. With a prolong period of clearing overnight, radiational fog may develop for portions of the region. Hi-Res model guidance are focusing heavily near the I-80 region for fog due to elevated sfc moisture. However, confidence for a Dense Fog Advisory over the next 12 hours are low. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly warmer than Saturday with slight warm advection aloft and dirunal mixing under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5 degrees above the climatological average; heat index values south of Pittsburgh are anticipated to be near 90F. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend. - Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in cloud cover, early morning fog development could continue into Monday. With a noted 590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the low to mid-90s across the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning output supports this. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast. Scattered cu will wane around sunset leaving cirrus clouds. There are low probs in the gridded LAMP and NBM /less than 40%/ of MVFR fog 3-5SM developing south of I-70. For now, left it out of the forecast given the amount of mixing of dry air today and using parcel trajectories from this morning. VFR weather carries through Sunday. The CU rule gives scattered high based cu once again, with possible short duration broken clouds near Lake Erie. Wind will light less than five knots from the southwest. .Outlook... Monday...VFR Tuesday - Thursday: MVFR weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time VFR. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88 LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88 AVIATION...McMullen