401
FXUS61 KPBZ 070830
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
430 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is anticipated to continue into Monday under high
pressure. Fog potential this morning north of Pittsburgh, PA.
Active weather returns by Tuesday and Wednesday associated with
a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and mostly seasonable temperatures today.

- Fog potential this morning through mid morning.

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Clear skies have set up across the area and radiational fog may
develop for portions of the region, especially in the river
valleys through dawn. Hi- Res model guidance are focusing
heavily near the I-80 region for fog due to elevated sfc
moisture.

High pressure will remain over the region for today making for
mainly clear skies with a few instances of afternoon cu.
Temperatures for today will be slightly warmer than Saturday
with slight warm advection aloft and diurnal mixing under a
mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5 degrees above the
climatological average; heat index values south of Pittsburgh
are anticipated to be near 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather tonight and most of Monday.

- Fog potential for Monday morning.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear
skies, early morning fog development could occur into Monday
morning.

Heading into the day on Monday, high pressure positioned off the
east coast will make for southwesterly flow into the southern
counties of the forecast area. A passing trough aloft to the
south may be enough to spawn a few showers or storms into
Preston and Tucker Counties for Monday afternoon. With a noted
590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by
Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the
low to mid-90s across the region. A return in moisture and
warmer temperatures will lead to Heat Index values in the 95 to
99 degree range. This has been mentioned in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently
is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great
Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall
threat on Wednesday.

The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean
heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal
temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave
movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low
confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps
the trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a
bit longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area
dry to end the period on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower confidence continues on peri-dawn fog development. Have
continued with fog mention at LBE/MGW/ZZV/FKL where
probabilities are highest. Any fog will largely dissipate by
12Z, leaving VFR conditions for Sunday, with scattered afternoon
cumulus development once again. A weaker surface pressure
gradient will lead to lighter wind, with W/NW wind remaining
under 10 knots.

.Outlook...
General VFR continues through Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms return Tuesday through Thursday with brief,
related restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen