272
FXUS61 KPBZ 071330
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
930 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather
returns Tuesday and Wednesday, associated with a passing trough
and the remnants of Beryl.

Monday and Tuesday will be the hottest days of the week with
widespread 90s outside of the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and mostly seasonable temperatures today.

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High pressure will result in mainly clear skies with a few
instances of afternoon cu. Temperatures will be slightly warmer
than Saturday with slight warm advection aloft and diurnal
mixing under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5
degrees above the climatological average; heat index values
south of Pittsburgh are anticipated to be near 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue.
- Above normal temperatures.
- Fog potential for Monday morning.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear
skies, early morning fog development could occur again Monday
morning.

Heading into the day on Monday, high pressure positioned off the
east coast will make for southwesterly flow into the southern
counties of the forecast area. A passing trough aloft to the
south may be enough to spawn a few showers or storms into
Preston and Tucker Counties for Monday afternoon. With a noted
590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by
Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the
low to mid-90s across the region. A return in moisture and
warmer temperatures will lead to Heat Index values in the mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently
is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great
Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall
threat on Wednesday.

The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean
heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal
temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave
movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low
confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps
the trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a
bit longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area
dry to end the period on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence forecast. All the fog at FKL and ZZV has lifted
with VFR to prevail through the balance of the forecast. The
only place where confidence goes below 90% is the development of
pre dawn fog Monday morning. Right now, probs are lower than
this morning and with a warmer column with dewpoints getting
near 70F it will be tougher.

High based cu is forecast again this afternoon with CCLs around
5KFT.

.Outlook...
VFR continues through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
return Tuesday through Thursday with brief, related restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger/88
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen