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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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059 FXUS61 KPBZ 072058 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 458 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl. Monday through Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with widespread 90s outside of the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions, with temperatures a tick above seasonal norms. - Patchy fog potential towards morning. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will remain in command through tonight. Afternoon cumulus will collapse this evening, with a mostly clear overnight period. With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear skies, early morning fog development could occur again overnight, especially north of Pittsburgh. Overnight low temperatures will end up just a touch above seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions continue. - Above normal temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Heading into the day on Monday, high pressure positioned off the east coast will make for southwesterly flow into the southern counties of the forecast area. A passing trough aloft to the south may be enough to spawn a few showers or storms into Preston and Tucker Counties for Monday afternoon. With a noted 590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the low to mid-90s across the region. A return in moisture and warmer temperatures will lead to Heat Index values in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning output supports this. Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall threat on Wednesday. The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps the trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a bit longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area dry to end the period on Saturday. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence forecast /90%/. VFR is forecast the duration of the forecast. The only fly in the ointment would be at FKL overnight, where IFR fog could develop around sunrise. For now, left it out with future shifts to monitor. Probabilities for fog development anywhere are lower than this morning, which makes sense per a warmer column and dewpoints around 70F. Cu will pop around 14-15Z like the past few days, however brought bases lower given more moisture Monday to 4KFT instead of 5KFT /no operational impact though/. Wind be five knots or less the duration of the forecast. .Outlook... VFR continues Monday night into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with brief, related restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...CL/88 SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88 LONG TERM...Shallenberger AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen