434
FXUS63 KPAH 132327
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger into
  this evening. Strong to isolated severe storms will be
  possible, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main
  threats.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday
  with heat indices approaching or exceeding 105 degrees. A
  Heat Advisory has been issued.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Several boundaries are noted across largely southern IL into
southwest IN this afternoon. Convection has developed in those area
with very heavy downpours, frequent lightning and some gusty winds
under very unstable conditions. Some flooding will be possible as
the storms are very slow moving with very heavy rainfall rates in
excess of an inch an hour. Similar to last night, where the heavy
rainfall occurs, patchy fog will likely develop overnight.

The focus then turns to broad upper-level ridging across most of the
central CONUS that develops Sunday through at least Tuesday. This
will lead to a steady increase in temperatures through the middle of
the work week. Southerly flow will steadily increase through that
time period as well, pushing relative humidity values up along with
heat index values. High temperatures will push into the mid to upper
90s with heat index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for all of the Quad State area for Sunday
and Monday; however, an extension into Tuesday is very likely with
later updates.

A cold front will arrive for Wednesday into Thursday increasing the
chances for showers and storms while allowing for a bit cooler
weather for Friday. Aloft, the pattern will tilt more toward a
troughing pattern for Thursday through Saturday, which will keep
temperatures quite a bit cooler. Highs during that time period will
be mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next several hours. Some
ground fog is possible again in the late overnight hours mixing
out after sunrise.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ Sunday to 8 PM CDT /9
    PM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG