967
FXUS63 KPAH 061722
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and more pleasant weather this weekend.

- Scattered showers/storms may turn more widespread and numerous
  Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall coverage/amounts will be
  dependent on the strength and track of Tropical Storm Beryl in
  the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

We look to stay north of a cold front through the weekend with
somewhat cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. Moisture
return begins on Monday as an approaching trough lifts the front
back to the north. Modest instability builds in by the afternoon
and scattered showers and storms will likely make an appearance.

After that the forecast largely depends on the fate of Beryl in
the Gulf of Mexico. There has been a consistent trend in
guidance of the storm moving a little further north than
previously thought as it gets captured by and approaching
shortwave trough. The 00z guidance suite tracks it pretty much
completely over the area. The Yucatan Peninsula appears to have
done quite a number on the storm that has seemed nearly
invincible along its track up tot his point and its track and
our impacts will depend largely on if and how much the storm can
reorganize. NWS NHC has the storm moving into southeast Texas as
a hurricane but warns they are concerned about rapid
intensification if the storm can reestablish a central core.

The modest upper ascent northeast of an approaching cyclone
fits the pattern for a Precursor Rainfall Event which would
result in decent mostly stratiform rain Tuesday and then the
storms core moving overhead Wednesday. What I think is
reasonably likely is Tuesday and Wednesday where you would want
an umbrella handy. Then the ultimate strength of the storm will
determine how much rain we see and if the storm ends up strong
enough to bring some wind-related impact although that really
appears pretty unlikely right now. The storm does however leave
a snail trail of 70+ degree dewpoints in its wake as tropical
cyclones often do which keep shower and storm chances in the
forecast through the week along with uncomfortably muggy
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue as high pressure settles over the
region tonight. FEW-SCT diurnal CU will diminish to clear skies
overnight, with more CU developing Sunday after 16z. Light and
variable winds will become calm overnight... picking up from the
SSE around 5 kts Sunday morning. Low temperatures will fall
near crossover temperature thresholds tonight, so some patchy
fog development cannot be ruled out around daybreak. However,
confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS