656
FXUS63 KPAH 050423
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, humid and mainly dry through the 4th of July holiday
  weekend.

- Rain and storm chances return Sunday and continue with daily
  chances through next week.

- Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

We will remain under the influence of both sfc and upper ridging
into the start of the weekend. While both features will continue
to shift well east of the area through the weekend, we can
expect mainly dry but very warm temperatures over the weekend
with highs in the low/mid 90a but with dew points in the upper
60s/low 70s heat index values will be in the upper 90s to near
triple digits.

The upper ridge will begin to break down on Sunday as an upper
level shortwave approaches from the northwest along with a sfc
cold front dropping in from the plains and upper Midwest on
Sunday into Monday before stalling and becoming quasi-
stationary over the region next week. The overall pattern
becomes more amplified with ridging across the western CONUS and
a trough across the eastern half. While temperatures may cool
of slightly with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, we will
remain muggy with dew points in the low/mid 70s. This will
result in daily chances of scattered to numerous showers and
storms, mainly into the afternoon through most of next week.
Gusty winds, torrential rainfall and lightning will be the main
threats from any convection the develops each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Clear skies, calm winds, and lingering smoke from the 4th of
July will give way to patchy fog early Saturday morning.
Confidence is lower at KEVV/KOWB to include TAF mention due to
drier air, but the chance is non-zero. After sunrise, VFR
conditions are expected during the day with scattered cu around
5 kft AGL developing by midday. Skies turn clear again Saturday
evening, but some mid-level clouds may linger across the western
terminals. Winds will be south between 6-8 kts, turning light
after sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO LMK
AVIATION...DW