887
FXUS63 KPAH 091729
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very pleasant weather with below normal temperature and
  humidity levels is expected today through this weekend
  following the passage of a dry cold front.

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms will return to the forecast beginning Monday.

- Temperatures will warm back to near normal values next week
  along with an uptick humidity levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

A moisture-starved cold front is currently making its way
southeast across the forecast area. In its wake, a very
comfortable airmass will set up shop over the region today
through this weekend. With persistent longwave troughing over
the eastern CONUS, local 850 mb temperatures are progged to
only reach 12-16C. This will keep high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s each day. Open window weather is expected
during the nighttime hours, with overnight lows dipping into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity levels will be quite low, with
ensemble low- level specific humidity values via the NAEFS
forecast to be in the 5th percentile or lower.

A transition to more typical late summer temperature and
humidity levels as well as a return of widespread precipitation
chances looks to begin on Monday. The forecast area will come
under a more active northwest flow pattern aloft, with
disturbances within this flow initiating isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. At the surface, a warm front
will become positioned across the southern Plains into the Ozark
Plateau. Confidence in timing of the precipitation next week
remains low, as initiation of storms may be driven just as much
by mesoscale features as it will be by synoptic shortwave
forcing. At this time, the greatest coverage of storms during
the Monday to Friday period next week looks to be during peak
heat hours into the evening. Given the lower overall confidence,
it remains too early to pinpoint the potential for more
organized convection or the potential for localized flooding
concerns. High temperatures will warm into the middle to upper
80s, with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

An MVFR cu deck has developed over the southwestern third of the
area that will continue to move off to the southwest over the
coming hours. Skies will then remain clear until some high
clouds move in after sunset. Winds are generally light at around
10 kts and out of the north. They will then become light and
variable overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY