Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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887 FXUS63 KPAH 091729 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very pleasant weather with below normal temperature and humidity levels is expected today through this weekend following the passage of a dry cold front. - Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast beginning Monday. - Temperatures will warm back to near normal values next week along with an uptick humidity levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 A moisture-starved cold front is currently making its way southeast across the forecast area. In its wake, a very comfortable airmass will set up shop over the region today through this weekend. With persistent longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS, local 850 mb temperatures are progged to only reach 12-16C. This will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Open window weather is expected during the nighttime hours, with overnight lows dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity levels will be quite low, with ensemble low- level specific humidity values via the NAEFS forecast to be in the 5th percentile or lower. A transition to more typical late summer temperature and humidity levels as well as a return of widespread precipitation chances looks to begin on Monday. The forecast area will come under a more active northwest flow pattern aloft, with disturbances within this flow initiating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. At the surface, a warm front will become positioned across the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. Confidence in timing of the precipitation next week remains low, as initiation of storms may be driven just as much by mesoscale features as it will be by synoptic shortwave forcing. At this time, the greatest coverage of storms during the Monday to Friday period next week looks to be during peak heat hours into the evening. Given the lower overall confidence, it remains too early to pinpoint the potential for more organized convection or the potential for localized flooding concerns. High temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 An MVFR cu deck has developed over the southwestern third of the area that will continue to move off to the southwest over the coming hours. Skies will then remain clear until some high clouds move in after sunset. Winds are generally light at around 10 kts and out of the north. They will then become light and variable overnight and into tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...SHAWKEY