280
FXUS63 KPAH 090855
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will continue to bring widespread shower
  and storms to the area through late tonight.

- Flash Flooding and severe thunderstorms are possible through
  tonight associated with Beryl.

- The region will dry out and warm up for the latter half of the
  week through next weekend, with typical summertime heat and
  humidity returning to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Rain is beginning to increase in coverage across the area early this
morning as moisture surges north. The severe weather threat with
this activity is pretty low given a more stable environment across
our region compared to further south. All eyes will be on the
remnants of Beryl as it moves NNE from the lower Mississippi
Valley this morning on its way through the Quad State today.
Widespread precipitation will continue to move through the
region, especially west of the Mississippi River this morning.
More development, including thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon. Multiple hazards are expected from Beryl including
flash flooding and tornadoes/damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall/Flash flooding: Continued strong moisture flux and
strong ascent will favor very heavy rainfall rates this morning and
throughout the day. Area forecast soundings depict an
environment that is supportive of very efficient rainfall rates
including deeply saturated profiles with warm cloud depths
between 13-16kft, and PW`s on the order of 2 to 2.3 inches. WPC
QPF still depicts around 2-4 inches through tonight across much
of the area including southeast Missouri, southern Illinois,
southwest Indiana, far western Kentucky and northwest Kentucky.
Further east, activity is expected to be more scattered in
nature, with less overall rainfall amounts. There continues to
be a signal for locally higher rainfall amounts in southeast
Missouri, and southern Illinois. The previous few runs of the
HREF probability-matched mean guidance shows a few localized
areas of 4-6 inches possible and as such the flood watch
remains.

Severe Weather Threat: As is typical with the NE side of tropical
systems, a tornado threat exists today. A strong theta-e
gradient/warm front will lift north across the eastern half of the
are PAH CWA late this morning and into the afternoon. Some breaks in
cloud cover along with strong moisture flux will result in
destabilization boosting CAPE values several hundred joules fairly
quickly. A broken line of storms is progged to develop this
afternoon and move northeast across the region. Forecast
soundings show profiles conducive for tornadoes with 0-3km CAPE
on the order of 100-150 J/kg, and 0-1km shear between 20-30
knots this afternoon. The combination of this sufficient
instability and strong low level shear will contribute to a
heightened tornado threat today. The area of most concern is
across western Kentucky, portions of southern Illinois, and
southwest Indiana. Additionally, any of these strong to severe
storms may also contain damaging wind gusts today.

By Wednesday morning, the rainfall will exit the region from
southwest to northeast as the low tracks northeast of the region.
High pressure building in from the west will bring clearing skies
through the day Wednesday. Highs will warm into the mid to
upper 80`s west of the Mississippi River and low to mid 80`s
east. Winds will likely be gusty at least for the eastern half
of the area with gusts between 20-25 mph at times. High pressure
will remain across the region through the remainder of the week
keeping things dry. Temperatures will be on the rise with mid
to upper 80`s on Thursday, and upper 80`s to lower 90`s on
Friday. The weekend and early next week looks even a bit warmer
with highs in the 90`s for most locations. More humid
conditions also arrive this weekend with heat index values near
100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Guidance continues to waffle on the exact storm track, which
will play havoc with all elements of the forecast, especially
winds, ceilings, and SHRA/TSRA timing. All-in-all not a lot of
change from the previous forecasts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ001>008-010-014-
     018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS