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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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795 FXUS63 KPAH 141114 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potentially hazardous heat and humidity will begin today and continue into early next week. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all the forecast area through Monday evening. - A potent, but slow-moving, frontal boundary will push into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with locally heavy rain and some flooding issues a possibility. - Drier and much more comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will arrive for the second half of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Today through Tuesday night...Patchy fog will continue to develop early this morning in this stuffy and stagnant airmass. A few locations have already seen visibility values drop to 1 mile or less, so may need to hoist a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory if conditions continue to decline. Today will be the start of another heat wave that will last through Tuesday. High pressure centered over the southern Appalachian Mountains will funnel a very warm and humid airmass into the region. Latest NAEFS guidance shows 850 mb temperatures climbing to 21-23C during this period, which will yield peak surface temperatures in the lower to middle 90s in most areas. Combined with dew point temperatures in the middle 70s (with areas near high evapotranspiration sources seeing locally higher values approaching 80 degrees), heat index values today, Monday, and Tuesday, should have no issues reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105-110F) for the entire region. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 70s during this period. Combined with the high humidity, relief from the heat will be limited at best, especially for those in urbanized areas. Wednesday and Thursday...A transition to a period of unsettled weather is looking more likely during the Wednesday and Thursday period. Global model guidance shows a rather robust baroclinic zone setting up over the region during this time, in association with an approaching surface cold front from the northwest. As it typical with summertime cold fronts, its progress will be slow as it traverses the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop near this boundary. Aided by favorable upper-level dynamics, PWAT values around 2", and the potential for training thunderstorms, locally heavy rain and flooding issues will be possible. Latest WPC QPF now has roughly 1-2" of rain forecast over the western half (SEMO/SW IL/far W KY) of the region, and 0.5-1.0" over the eastern half (SE IL/SW IN/rest of W KY). Given the favorable setup, would not be surprised if QPF amounts increase a bit more in the coming days. Also would not be surprised by a stray strong to severe storm with strong winds either. High temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday and the lower to middle 80s on Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Following the frontal passage, a period of very, very nice weather looks to be in store for the region. high pressure looks to setting over the area from Canada, bringing a refreshing break from the heat and humidity. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s, but with very comfortable humidity levels, overnights lows look to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s! These values would actually not be too far from record low territory. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Lingering MIFG at EVV and MVN should dissipate by 13z. The remainder of the forecast period will see VFR conditions. Winds will be from the SW at 5-10 kts. A few diurnal CU will develop in the 18-24z window at EVV and OWB with bases around 5-7kft. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS