635
FXUS63 KPAH 092103
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
403 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will gradually lift northeast out of the
  Quad State tonight. Isolated storms will continue to pose a
  tornado and flash flooding threat over the Pennyrile region of
  west Kentucky and Evansville Tri State through early evening.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible Wednesday through
  Thursday, but temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.

- High pressure aloft builds in through the weekend, resulting
  in temperatures well into the 90s. Heat indices will reach the
  triple digits by Sunday and could climb over 105 degrees
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A north/south oriented boundary located from near Harrisburg
Illinois to Murray Kentucky has a broken line of showers and
storms along it. The boundary separates cooler air behind it from
the tropical soup ahead of it. Scattered thunderstorms ahead of
the line remain capable of producing tornadoes and damaging
winds. The widespread heavy rains have not really developed over
the region today and we have already cancelled western portions
of the Flood Watch. However, along and ahead of the boundary,
locally heavy rainfall still has the potential to briefly
overwhelm drainage systems and result in some flooding issues.
So will keep the Flood Watch going along and ahead of the boundary
into this evening. The Flood Watch will likely be cancelled well
before its 12Z Wednesday expiration.

As Beryl lifts northeast, another upper disturbance will rotate
southward through the Mississippi Valley Wednesday into
Thursday. Much of the 12Z and later guidance generates some
isolated convection associated with this feature Wednesday
through Thursday. Decided to insert some slight chance PoPs to
account for the possibility.

High pressure aloft will build northward over the Quad State
Friday into Saturday, but lower-amplitude troughing will linger
to the north/northeast of the region. The ridging should win out
over the Quad State and keep the area dry through the weekend
and into early next week. Temperatures will climb up above
normal by Saturday and reach the middle 90s Sunday through next
Tuesday. Persistent south winds will eventually bring
significant low-level moisture back to the region, allowing heat
indices to climb into the triple digits Sunday and possibly over
105 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Really tricky forecast this period with cigs bouncing around,
and precip off and on thanks to the remnants of Beryl. Cigs are
mainly MVFR with occasional IFR passing through until later in
the period when IFR may persist more. Showers and storms are
expected to impact the terminals at various times throughout the
period due to remnants of Beryl passing through. This may
decrease visibility at times. Wind is also expected to increase
overnight particularly around the Evansville Tri-State with
gusts to around 20-25 kts at times.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>091-
     094.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ076.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ005>008-010-014-
     018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY