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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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147 FXUS63 KPAH 112345 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon/evening and again on Friday. - Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday. - Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Models continue to show an upper level trof extending from the Great Lakes Region into the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys tonight through Saturday night. Very isolated showers have developed at times since late this morning, and chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, ending as we lose our heating. Small chances return during the late morning through the afternoon hours Friday for the entire PAH forecast area, then isolated showers and storms will be confined to the I-64 corridor Saturday afternoon. As the upper trof breaks down, a broad upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S., and our region will see increasing south to southwest flow Sunday into next week. This will result in a warming trend through Tuesday. High temperatures will be seasonable Friday around 90 degrees, with readings creeping up into the upper 90s by Tuesday. Dew points in the lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday will push heat indices up to around 105 degrees. A more active weather pattern returns by mid week with models showing a deepening upper level trof gradually moving toward and over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Tuesday into Thursday. This will be accompanied by a slow moving cold front. This brings back chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday, and will bring down temperatures to near, then a little below normal readings. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact KMVN and KCGI for another hour or so. More isolated convection will be possible at any point during the day Friday. Some light fog formation will be possible again near sunrise, especially where they actually get some rain late this afternoon or this evening. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...DRS