400
FXUS63 KPAH 051727
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early
  morning. A strong storm or two are possible. Thunderstorms
  will also produce heavy rainfall, and minor flooding is
  possible.

- Drying out with cooler and less humid conditions this
  weekend. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An MCS is moving across Southeast Missouri, projected to bring
showers and storms through the remainder of the Quad State
through mid-morning. The stronger storm activity had been
confined to the southernmost two rows of counties in SEMO,
though a storm flaring up in Perry County shows there remains
potential in the north. Over a quarter of Wayne County, MO
without power as a result of strong downburst winds. There is
plenty of moisture, and enough instability and shear to, with an
assist from a favorable positioning near the upper level jet,
produce a few strong to severe storms. A few more strong to
severe gusts are possible. Complicating matters are scattered
thunderstorms entering into the Jackson Purchase area of
Kentucky ahead of the line. This group of storms looks to be
taking over for having the stronger updrafts in the south.
Breezy winds gusting to 20-35 mph have lingered for an hour at
Poplar Bluff and appear to be doing the same for other locations
on this track. The progressive nature of these storms has so
far kept the high PWAT driven rain rates from producing more
than advisory flooding, though isolated flooding issues remain
possible.

A cold frontal passage moves through this morning, bringing an
end to precipitation. Drier air moves into the region along with
high pressure, resulting in much more pleasant conditions for
the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with lows
and dew points in the 60s.

A complicated pattern exists for next week. A trough dips well
southward into the Plains, pushing the ridge off to the east.
This will enable Hurricane Beryl to turn more northward towards
Texas. A boundary will set up, enabling moisture to funnel
northeastward, but models suggesting this pattern vary in
north-south positioning of the boundary and this is long range
for Beryl. For now, daily chances of slight chance to chance
showers and storms are in the forecast for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

MVFR bases early this afternoon expected to rise above VFR by
mid afternoon with VFR conditions expected through Saturday.
Northwesterly winds this afternoon will become calm this evening
picking back up late Sat afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...AD