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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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291 FXUS63 KPAH 201111 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 611 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days. - Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A surface trough stretching through west Tennessee this morning is expected to work its way into western Kentucky this afternoon and evening. As this happens, a few showers and thunderstorms can be expected across mainly the Pennyrile. Instability values are progged to reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon, which will be more than enough for thunderstorm development. In fact, early this morning, there are already some thunderstorms developing across northern Mississippi into western Tennessee. This will be similar to what the Pennyrile will see by early to mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 20kts, so not anticipating any severe weather today. Outside of the aformentioned location, cloud cover will be greater today than it has been the past few days with a gradual increase into much of next week. The overall pattern will be generally troughing over the eastern CONUS with ridging across the west. That will keep the Quad State in the base of a trough with multiple disturbances making their way through the area. Low-level moisture will gradually increase through the week as temperatures also increase. The increased instability and added moisture across the area will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day, with the greatest coverage expected each afternoon from Monday through Friday. It still appears as though the greatest chance for showers and storm next week will be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Very little shear will be in place, so not expecting any widespread severe weather potential; however, the storms will likely be slow-moving, which will lead to a localized heavy rainfall threat. Temperatures will gradually increase from where they`ve been over the past day or two; however, they are expected to remain below normal in the low to mid 80s. For comparison, normal high temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions expected at each TAF site today; however, a mid level ceiling around 4-6kft is expected around CGI/PAH/OWB. A few showers may approach PAH, but should remain south of OWB. As moisture increase tonight, some patchy fog may develop and decided to at least mention a minor reduction in visibility late tonight into Sunday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC