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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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062 FXUS63 KPAH 200822 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days. - Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A surface trough stretching through west Tennessee this morning is expected to work its way into western Kentucky this afternoon and evening. As this happens, a few showers and thunderstorms can be expected across mainly the Pennyrile. Instability values are progged to reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon, which will be more than enough for thunderstorm development. In fact, early this morning, there are already some thunderstorms developing across northern Mississippi into western Tennessee. This will be similar to what the Pennyrile will see by early to mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 20kts, so not anticipating any severe weather today. Outside of the aformentioned location, cloud cover will be greater today than it has been the past few days with a gradual increase into much of next week. The overall pattern will be generally troughing over the eastern CONUS with ridging across the west. That will keep the Quad State in the base of a trough with multiple disturbances making their way through the area. Low-level moisture will gradually increase through the week as temperatures also increase. The increased instability and added moisture across the area will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day, with the greatest coverage expected each afternoon from Monday through Friday. It still appears as though the greatest chance for showers and storm next week will be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Very little shear will be in place, so not expecting any widespread severe weather potential; however, the storms will likely be slow-moving, which will lead to a localized heavy rainfall threat. Temperatures will gradually increase from where they`ve been over the past day or two; however, they are expected to remain below normal in the low to mid 80s. For comparison, normal high temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR forecast tonight and on Saturday. Winds will remain light with FEW-SCT bases around 4-7kft. Still cant rule out an isolated shower around the Ft Campbell area, but not expecting any impacts to terminals. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...AD