048
FXUS63 KPAH 171730
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
  possible today with the passage of a cold front.

- A cooler and much less humid air mass will take hold from
  Thursday through early next week.

- A small chance of thunderstorms returns Sunday and increases
  through Tuesday. At this time, severe storms and widespread
  heavy rainfall are not anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The Flood Watch has been canceled. With the radar mostly clear
over the Flood Watch area and having received no additional
flooding reports from the hardest hit areas in the Mount Vernon,
IL, and Madisonville, KY, areas, the risk of additional
flooding has become too low to justify having a Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms developed across central portions of
the forecast area overnight in response to increasing low level
convergence nearly parallel to a baroclinic zone slowly settling
south through the area. Weak flow aloft and high precipitable
water values yielded highly efficient rainfall totals with some
rainfall estimates as high as 4 to 6 inches in the Pennyrile of
western Kentucky. This has resulted in the likelihood of flash
flooding, some potentially of considerable magnitude.

As we progress through the morning, the diminishing trend in
precipitation activity over the past hour should continue, with
spotty activity possible through the morning. The potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across most
of the forecast area through the afternoon as the baroclinic
zone continues its southward progression. By early evening, HREF
CAMs indicate that most of the activity should have pushed south
into Tennessee. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch through 7 AM
given the ongoing issues, but will likely let it go at that time
unless we see a compelling reason to the contrary.

As we head through late week and into the weekend, the upper
level pattern will be characterized by a western ridge and
eastern trough. At the surface, high pressure will build into
the region, resulting in much cooler and drier conditions. For
that matter, highs are forecast to climb from the lower 80s
Thursday and Friday into the middle 80s over the weekend, while
lows range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend and into
early next week as an upper low/trough deepens over the Missouri
Valley. This will result in a return of shower and thunderstorm
chances Sunday through Tuesday. Even though humidity will be on
the rise, temperatures look to stay below normal as highs remain
in the 80s through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A cold front has already passed KMVN and will pass through the
remaining TAF sites by 00Z. Ahead of it, MVFR ceilings and
scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected. North winds under
10kts and clearing skies are expected behind the front this
evening through Thursday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...DRS