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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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463 FXUS63 KPAH 202012 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days. - Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A surface trough is stalled out south of the Pennyrile in Tennessee today, and expected to remain through tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms have developed in Tennessee, moving northeastward, but activity weakens upon reaching the KY border. A few thunderstorms remain possible in the Southern Pennyrile today but, with very limited shear and CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated. Increased cloud coverage today has kept temperatures in the low to mid 80s at most locations, with a degree or two warming remaining this afternoon. Similar conditions continue tomorrow, with broader coverage of slight chance PoPs as a disturbance moves closer from the northwest. Highs remain in the mid-80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Much of next week will feature troughing in the east with a ridge in the west. A series of disturbances move northeastward, bringing daily shower and storm chances Monday to Wednesday. The axis of heaviest rain is south of the CWA but adjustments are possible. Convective parameters remain meager so lighting and heavy rain remain the primary hazards for now. Slow moving storms have the potential to develop a localized flood risk, but for now only a marginal risk day 4 exists in the ERO. High pressure moves into the Great Lakes for the end of the week. Precip chances remain but decrease as more ensemble members shift the storm track and Gulf moisture eastward. High temperatures remain in the 80s through the 7 day forecast, while lows warm towards the upper 70s as moisture increases next week. The 8-14 day outlook has flipped over to a very slight lean to above normal temperatures as the trough is likely to lift by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 SCT-BKN diurnal VFR bases will range from 5-10K FT AGL are expected to the north of a weak trof that is inverted across the Tennessee Valley. Light winds and a slow uptick in boundary layer moisture may allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight. Slightly lower diurnal bases to 4K FT AGL will be possible tmrw with dew points slightly higher. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...99