971
FXUS63 KPAH 111946
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
  afternoon/evening and again on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Models continue to show an upper level trof extending from the
Great Lakes Region into the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio
valleys tonight through Saturday night. Very isolated showers
have developed at times since late this morning, and chances of
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this
evening, ending as we lose our heating. Small chances return
during the late morning through the afternoon hours Friday for
the entire PAH forecast area, then isolated showers and storms
will be confined to the I-64 corridor Saturday afternoon.

As the upper trof breaks down, a broad upper level ridge will
develop over the western U.S., and our region will see
increasing south to southwest flow Sunday into next week. This
will result in a warming trend through Tuesday. High
temperatures will be seasonable Friday around 90 degrees, with
readings creeping up into the upper 90s by Tuesday. Dew points
in the lower 70s by Monday and Tuesday will push heat indices up
to around 105 degrees.

A more active weather pattern returns by mid week with models
showing a deepening upper level trof gradually moving toward and
over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late
Tuesday into Thursday. This will be accompanied by a slow moving
cold front. This brings back chances of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday, and will bring
down temperatures to near, then a little below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

SCT040 cumulus and isolated shra/tsra expected through 02z. MVFR
fog is possible between 09z-13z, but only included it at KMVN
for now. Winds will be light and variable to calm through the
TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST