414
FXUS63 KPAH 122336
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms into this evening.
  Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with
  damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Visible satellite and water vapor imagery shows an MCV sliding
across southern MO toward the CWA this afternoon. Along and ahead of
that feature, isolated to scattered showers and storms have
developed. Very little shear is around for the storms to work with;
however, there is a decent amount of instability around 2000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE. That may lead to a brief pulse-type severe storm or
two, but it is not expected to be widespread. The main threat would
be damaging winds as the storms collapse. In fact, the area is still
under a marginal risk of severe through this evening. The added
moisture from any rainfall, along with light winds overnight, will
lead to at least patchy fog across the area. Some locally dense fog
is not out of the question, again, where the rain occurs this
afternoon.

As weak troughing lingers aloft across the area for Saturday, expect
some scattered afternoon cloud cover along with a an isolated shower
or storm in the afternoon. Coverage will likely be reduced from what
it was this afternoon.

The focus then turns to broad upper-level ridging across most of the
central CONUS. This will lead to a steady increase in temperatures
through the middle of the work week. This will begin on Sunday and
then linger through at least Tuesday/Wednesday. Southerly flow will
steadily increase through that time period as well, pushing relative
humidity values up along with heat index values. High temperatures
will push into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values reaching
and exceeding 105 degree Sunday through at least Tuesday. This will
easily be in the Heat Advisory headline criteria. A cold front will
arrive for Wednesday into Thursday increasing the chances for
showers and storms while allowing for a bit cooler weather for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Shower and storm activity is winding down early this evening.
Winds are expected to become light overnight, with vsby
conditions degrading to MVFR or worse before dawn with the
lowest vsbys more likely to be either in the northeast of
climatologically favored locations. Winds of 5-8 kts tomorrow
are out of the southwest with clearing skies.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL