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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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677 FXUS63 KPAH 130829 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 329 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or storm is possible today but most areas likely staying dry. - Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday. - Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Upper level troughing remains in place early this morning with WV imagery showing a positively tilted trough axis from the middle Mississippi Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. WV imagery also reveals a disturbance directly overhead the Quad State this morning with additional waves embedded upstream. Conditions are mostly quiet this morning with temperatures in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s. There are a few isolated showers around and this may continue for the next couple of hours given the upper level disturbance across the region. By the afternoon hours, models have the upper disturbance exiting the area, largely limiting ascent. With that said, there may still be some weak upper level divergence to work with so a few isolated showers are still possible across portions of the area. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the lower 90`s. Dewpoints in the lower 70`s will allow heat indices to rise into the upper 90`s to near 100 degrees. Upper troughing moves well east of the region on Sunday with ridging extending across much of the central CONUS. Dry weather is expected Sunday through much of Tuesday beneath ridging aloft. The main story will be the warm temperatures as highs rise into the mid 90`s. Continued southerly flow will bring higher dewpoints into the region increasing heat indices to near or exceeding 105 degrees. By Tuesday night into Wednesday the upper levels amplify as a strong trough moves across the Great Lakes sending a cold front through the region. This will bring increasing chances of showers and storms to the area Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Fog formation will be a primary flight concern overnight tonight. A passing 5000-6000 ft swirl of clouds may delay the onset but conditions appear favorable for at least patchy fog with IFR visibilities possible and locally dense fog can`t be ruled out. Any fog should mix out fairly quickly after sunrise with light southwest winds developing by mid to late morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...JGG