750
FXUS63 KPAH 131707
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or storm is possible today but most areas
  likely staying dry.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper level troughing remains in place early this morning with
WV imagery showing a positively tilted trough axis from the
middle Mississippi Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. WV
imagery also reveals a disturbance directly overhead the Quad
State this morning with additional waves embedded upstream.
Conditions are mostly quiet this morning with temperatures in
the upper 60`s to lower 70`s. There are a few isolated showers
around and this may continue for the next couple of hours given
the upper level disturbance across the region.

By the afternoon hours, models have the upper disturbance
exiting the area, largely limiting ascent. With that said, there
may still be some weak upper level divergence to work with so a
few isolated showers are still possible across portions of the
area. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the lower
90`s. Dewpoints in the lower 70`s will allow heat indices to
rise into the upper 90`s to near 100 degrees.

Upper troughing moves well east of the region on Sunday with
ridging extending across much of the central CONUS. Dry weather
is expected Sunday through much of Tuesday beneath ridging
aloft. The main story will be the warm temperatures as highs
rise into the mid 90`s. Continued southerly flow will bring
higher dewpoints into the region increasing heat indices to near
or exceeding 105 degrees. By Tuesday night into Wednesday the
upper levels amplify as a strong trough moves across the Great
Lakes sending a cold front through the region. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and storms to the area Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Fairly quiet conditions are expected through this TAF issuance.
VFR ceilings and vsbys will be the rule. A stray shower or storm
may develop this afternoon, but the confidence in that happening
is low enough to leave out of the TAF with this update.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC