907
FXUS64 KOUN 170703
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
203 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have occurred tonight as a
stalling MCV interacted with a frontal boundary within a very moist
airmass. This activity has slowly diminished without the presence
of deep-layer shear, but a lingering risk of gusty winds to 50 mph
and very heavy rain can`t be ruled out.

All indications suggest a relative lull in storm coverage around
daybreak. However, redevelopment may occur as early as mid-morning
near the MCV in central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear will be very
weak, and forecast soundings from the HRRR and NAM show PWATs
approaching or even exceeding 2 inches. Thus, slow-moving storms
with very heavy rainfall are expected.

A secondary surge of northerly surface winds will push in by late
morning, which will shove the front further south into the Red River
Valley. Coupled with daytime heating, this frontal intrusion should
serve as the focus for surface-based convection initiation. The
strongest cores in southern Oklahoma or western north Texas could
have damaging winds gusts or the risk for flooding. Meanwhile,
cirrus debris from this MCV coupled with the frontal push should
keep highs in the mid-to-upper 80s across most of the area, with 90s
possible in western north Texas.

Lingering storms are possible in western north Texas overnight
tonight, but the severe risk will be greatly reduced as the boundary
continues to move south. Lows will feel downright brisk for most
people with temperatures dropping into the 60s.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Well folks, we have just about made it: a prolonged period of
September-like weather will commence on Thursday.

The driver of this will be an increasingly amplified pattern across
the CONUS with ridging increasing across the West and troughing
increasing across the Midwest. The resultant northerly flow regime
aloft will encourage advection of cooler continental air at the
surface as well as periodic chances for showers and storms.

On Thursday and Friday, the pattern will be drier and thus a little
warmer than the days ahead. Still, it`s hard to complain about highs
near 90 in July. On Saturday, the trough across the Midwest will
begin to retrograde westward and potentially cut off as it reaches
the Plains. Rain and storm chances will increase accordingly during
the day as another surface front develops and is driven southward by
storms. From there, deterministic NBM output is showing some truly
eye-popping numbers at this range - highs in the low-to-mid 80s are
not easy to achieve without the assumption of constant rain/stratus
this time of year. This does appear to be a couple of degrees below
LREF guidance and is hanging out around the 25th percentile of the
guidance envelope, so we understand if you want to be skeptical.
Regardless, in all likelihood a lot of our area is on track to see
multiple days in a row in the 80s with at least low storm chances
from Sunday through Tuesday night.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

There are some scattered thunderstorms this evening across western
Oklahoma, generally south of KWWR and at least right now mostly
north of KCSM, but may affect the KCSM vicinity as they drift
slowly southeast. These initial storms may decrease in coverage
early this evening after sunset, but a thunderstorm complex
developing in southeast Colorado and the western Oklahoma
panhandle is expected to move east and affect the northern
Oklahoma TAF sites. There could be severe weather with these
storms this evening, primarily strong winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  69  88  65 /  40  10  10   0
Hobart OK         90  68  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  70  93  68 /  30  30  20   0
Gage OK           88  65  88  65 /  30  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     88  68  89  63 /  40   0   0   0
Durant OK         93  72  90  69 /  40  40  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26