![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
883 FXUS64 KOUN 110823 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Models in good agreement with the mid-level shortwave currently rotating through the ridge just lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies to retrograde and dig into the Southern Plains as an open trough. Models also in good agreement with strong mid-level ascent in the trough as seen in the Omega fields at 700 mb and strong mixing off the surface by late afternoon with some models projecting low-end moderate surface based instability for a potential of convection developing. Although synoptic scale deterministic models as well as NBM stay dry for any QPF, nearly all the CAMs are in good agreement for some isolated convection developing between the latter half of this morning and through the afternoon across a swath of all of central Oklahoma including southwest Oklahoma by mid afternoon. A few caveats though as mid-level moisture may not be sufficient and uncertainty of afternoon heating/mixing breaking or holding the weak cap? As a result, will keep the POPs very low (15%). Any storms that do pulse up would be weak, short-lived and isolated, and very weak shear would deter any kind of severe organization. Otherwise, our heating trend persists today as south winds will start increasing this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rise above climatically normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s expected. Southcentral through southeast Oklahoma may feel a bit muggy with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints while the rest of our area not as muggy. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Western U.S. extending to the Central and Southern Plains as pressure heights will continue to rise each day as we get hotter, and that ridge expected to build over the entire southern half of the country by early next week. South winds may start getting a bit breezy by Friday into the next week enhanced by low-level jet firing up every night. Did increase the windspeeds slightly higher in the forecast for Friday and Saturday afternoons using the NBM 90th percentile winds. Northern and all of western Oklahoma through western north Texas could start seeing triple digit highs of 100-102 degrees by Friday expanding into parts of central through southeast Oklahoma. As far as moisture fields, the ECMWF continues to be the most aggressive with the low-level gulf moisture transport up through the Mississippi Delta Region keeping dewpoints a couple of degrees higher across southeast Oklahoma although in fairly good agreement across the remainder of our CWA. NBM is even more aggressive than the ECMWF with lower 70s dewpoint across southeast Oklahoma although in fairly good consistency with the other two models. Based on the NBM, portions of the eastern half of our CWA could see heat index value at or exceeding 105 degrees on Sunday through Wednesday. Still not seeing any excessive heating but can`t rule out a few heat advisories. As far as rain/storms, the latter half of next week could be wet at times beginning Tuesday night as models this far out suggest an inverted trough may come up from western Texas with another system moving across the Upper Midwest Region possibly pushing a backdoor cool front through our area late in the week. Although still far out, we could finally see a break in our short heatwave around Thursday with temperatures returning to more seasonably average (lower to mid 90s). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Cannot completely rule out brief SHRA/TSRA with VFR conditions at KPNC/KSWO through 12Z, but confidence not high enough to mention. Will utilize amendments as needed. VFR conditions and light southerly winds expected through the period. A weak surface trough will move over KWWR tomorrow afternoon and switch winds to northerly for several hours, then back to southerly by end of forecast period. Confidence is fairly high that we will see at least a few high- based SHRA/TSRA tomorrow afternoon ahead of trough, but probability of non-VFR restrictions and/or TSRA at any given terminal are too low (less than 30 percent) to mention this far out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 95 73 96 73 / 20 20 0 0 Hobart OK 98 71 99 72 / 20 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 98 74 99 73 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 99 69 101 72 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 99 71 100 74 / 20 20 0 0 Durant OK 96 73 97 73 / 20 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...11