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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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378 FXUS64 KOUN 111950 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 As has been the case the past couple days, daytime heating and weak capping has led to the development of isolated showers and storms this afternoon. This activity has mostly been focused within a surface trough across western Oklahoma, but could spread into central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Severe weather is not anticipated but gusty winds could accompany the stronger storms. Storms are expected to mostly dissipate around sunset, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the synoptic pattern changes very little. Capping appears to be a bit stronger tomorrow so we may see less in the way of shower and storm development than today, but cannot completely rule it out. CAMs are focusing their convective signal across northern Oklahoma where capping is weakest, so added slight chance (15%) for storms across these areas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 90s east/central and low 100s north/west. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Upper ridging begins to build eastward this weekend, which should lower our precipitation chances even further and lead to a warming trend through early next week. Near triple digit air temperatures are expected across much of the area through Tuesday, with heat indices potentially reach 105+ degrees once again, especially across central/eastern Oklahoma where humidity will be higher. Models suggest we could see a pattern change towards the middle to end of next week as the ridge amplifies to our west and troughing deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely send a cold front into our area, along with increasing chances for rain and somewhat cooler temperatures. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Some mid and high clouds will lead to VFR ceilings this TAF period. Isolated showers/storms could develop later this afternoon and early evening but chances are too low for mention in any of the TAFs. Gusty, variable winds will be possible near the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 71 99 72 98 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 99 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 70 102 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 101 75 100 / 10 20 20 0 Durant OK 72 97 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25