163
FXUS64 KOUN 121912
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
212 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Similar to the last several days, isolated showers and storms have
developed across portions of the area with daytime heating and a
weakly capped atmosphere. Activity has been a bit more focused today
across portions of central and northern Oklahoma so far, but
can`t rule out development just about anywhere through the
afternoon before activity diminishes around sunset with loss of
daytime heating.

Saturday looks fairly similar to today with hot temperatures and
slight chances for afternoon showers and storms, though with upper
ridging build a bit further overhead chances for this development
are somewhat less than today (~10%). Highs tomorrow will be in the
mid 90s (southeast) to low 100s (north/west).

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Ridging will build in a bit more on Sunday before a weakness begins
to develop overhead by Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures during this
period will continue to be hot, and as moisture increases a bit we
could see heat indices approach or exceed 105 degrees once again
across portions central/eastern Oklahoma Sunday through Tuesday.
The weakness in the ridge could lead to slightly higher
precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday afternoon (especially if
the GFS/GEFS is correct), but confidence is too low to add in
mention at this time.

Confidence is increasing that a pattern change will take place
toward the middle and end of next week as the upper ridge
amplifies to our west and troughing develops to our east. This
will place us within northwest flow aloft and help push a cold
front into the region Wednesday into Thursday. This is expected to
bring better chances for rain along with near to slightly below
average temperatures behind it to end the week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR ceilings this TAF period with some mid clouds. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible into early evening but chances
are low (~15%) so no mention in TAFs at this time. If a storm can
become strong enough, gusty variable winds will be possible near
the storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  96  74  97 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         73  98  74  99 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  98  75  99 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           73 101  71 102 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     75 101  74 102 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         73  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25