471
FXUS64 KOUN 131715
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot weather will continue as the Southern Plains will remain on
the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge and attendant low-level
thermal ridge. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to
low 100s deg F.

There is a very low chance the remnants of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing in Kansas could impact north central
Oklahoma later this morning. For late afternoon/early evening, the
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms is lower than recent
days (<10%) with a subtle cap indicated in forecast soundings.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The heat will continue on Sunday with no significant pattern
change. Temperatures might be a couple degrees higher with a
slight increase in 850 mb temperatures. Monday and Tuesday will
likely be hottest days next week as the low-level thermal ridge
advects to the northeast ahead of cold front slowly moving
southward across the Plains.

By Wednesday into Thursday, both deterministic models and
ensemble members indicate a significant pattern change is likely
across the Southern Plains. The mid/upper-level ridge will amplify
across the western U.S., and a mid/upper-level trough will
amplify across the eastern U.S. As a result, the synoptic-scale
pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft across the
Southern Plains. This pattern will allow for a cold front to
advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms and relatively cooler weather--bringing some
relief to the heat.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 141800. Gusty south winds will
cover most TAF sites apart from DUA during the daytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74  99  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 100  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71 103  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74 102  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09