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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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960 FXUS64 KOUN 141103 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 603 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are developing across southern Kansas this morning. These appear to be associated with isentropic ascent that is augmented by the low-level jet. There is a chance (~20% at a given location) that these showers and storms will impact northern Oklahoma early this morning before they dissipate. Otherwise, the hot weather will continue today as the Southern Plains remains on the eastern periphery of a ~599 dam mid-level ridge and associated low-level thermal ridge. The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand farther to the east today. For example, the 850 mb temperature on last night`s 00Z Norman Sounding was 20.6 deg C. For this afternoon, the 850 mb temperature is progged to rise to ~24 deg C at Norman. As a result, forecast high temperatures are 3 to 5 deg F higher today. High temperatures should range from the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. Air temperatures or heat index values will be near to above 105 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma, where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday and Tuesday will likely be hotter across a larger part of the area as the low-level thermal ridge advects to the northeast ahead of cold front slowly moving southward across the Plains. Heat Advisories will likely be needed on both days. Depending on the timing the next cold front, a Heat Advisory may also be needed for parts of the area on Wednesday. By Wednesday into Thursday, both deterministic models and ensemble members still indicate a significant pattern change is likely across the Southern Plains as the synoptic-scale pattern is forecast to transition to northwest flow as the ridge amplifies to the west and a trough amplifies to the east. Northwest flow will allow for a cold front to advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday into Thursday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass--likely below average temperatures--will advect southward into the Plains. Probabilistic guidance indicates a >50% chance that high temperatures will only be in the 80s deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma by Thursday. There is a reasonable chance this pattern will persist into the upcoming weekend with not as hot weather and a continued chance for rain. Mahale && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An area of mid-level clouds and some embedded showers is moving southward out of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma this morning. Did not include SHRA at the KPNC TAF due to the isolated nature of the showers, but brief rain is possible at TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail regardless, with winds expected to be out of the southwest this afternoon at 10-15 knots. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 98 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 101 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 105 75 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 103 77 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 98 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-017>020. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...04