435
FXUS64 KOUN 172318
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

With the current MCV spinning out across across central Oklahoma, a
surface boundary/summertime cold front pushing through our moist
surface layer along with vorticity forcing in the mid-levels of the
bottom of the trough, will keep storm POPs in through the afternoon
across all but northern Oklahoma which is post-frontal.  Cloud cover
should limit instability to weak CAPE values as well as weak shear
which should keep any convection below severe.  For this evening,
will limit storm POPs to southeast Oklahoma as this system slowly
shifts eastward.  For late tonight, another MCS expected with a
shortwave rotating around the closed upper ridge high over eastern
New Mexico with nighttime convection spilling into western Texas and
possibly on the cold front pushing across northern Texas.  As a
result, will have very low storm POPs (15-20%) across the southern
tier of our counties in western north Texas as well as southeast
Oklahoma with the other system slowly exiting.

High surface pressure settling over the the U.S. Upper Midwest
Region will result in northeast winds for Thursday while the upper
ridge over the Western U.S. starts building back into the Southern
Plains.  However will be tapping into more temperate Pacific air
aloft so not expecting any strong warming under this ridge at least
for the Southern Plains.  As a result, expecting to see temperatures
about 5 degrees cooler than normal on Thursday with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.  Although southeast Oklahoma should stay hot
and muggy, could see some drier air come in from the northeast
resulting in "less humid" conditions across the rest of our area for
Thursday. The latest 12Z runs of the deterministic NAM & GFS advect
upper 50s dewpoints while the DESI Grand ensemble has a 50-70%
probability of it occurring.  Although not as dry with the moisture,
The latest 12Z ECMWF run is trending drier than the previous 00Z run
as well as the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Rain/storm chances return Friday night and persist into early next
week as our next system returns.  A weak upper trough digs through
the U.S. Great Plains from the main jet flow up in Canada.  South
winds do make a brief return on Saturday just ahead of our next
summertime cold front passage during the time period of Sunday and
Monday. The highest overall probability of rain will be on Sunday
with 40-50% chances across our entire area.  This system could
linger across southeast Oklahoma on Tuesday with perhaps some wrap-
around rain on Wednesday. Predictability is too low this far out for
any mentions of severe weather this weekend. Could see some more
elevated convection on Saturday but becoming more surface based on
Sunday.  Models suggest our low-level moisture increasing Saturday
night with a potential of moderate instability (SBCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg) although a very weak sheared environment. With the potential
of a surface boundary we could be more storm active on Sunday.
Temperaturewise, will continue to see the trend of slightly cooler
than average temperatures and perhaps even a few degrees cooler from
Sunday into early next week as we`ll be post-frontal under a trough.

Latest Climate Prediction Center temperature guidance progs a 40-60%
probability of leaning below normal in the 8-15 day outlook, so
perhaps next weeks cooler trend will persist through the end of this
month?  However don`t expect Summer to be over as August is right
around the corner but perhaps we`ll see break from any excessive
heating or heat waves till then?

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Clouds have generally cleared out of the area, except for in the
far southeast. Mid-level clouds persist in southeast Oklahoma
including over KDUA. There is some potential for showers in the
KDUA this evening, but the chances look to be decreasing and
currently look low enough that we will not include a tempo or
VCSH/VCTS group in the TAF. There is also some potential for MVFR
ceilings at KDUA Thursday morning, but again the probability looks
too low to include in the TAFs right now, although we will
reevaluate that this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  87  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  92  65  93 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  92  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           66  89  64  91 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     67  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  87  68  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26