056
FXUS64 KOUN 142315
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Mid/upper ridge continues to influence the region. Warm conditions
expected tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Thermal ridge will spread
E/NE Monday with 850mb temps forecast to be a few degrees warmer
than today. This will lead to even hotter highs Monday with
temperatures expected to climb into the triple digits across the
entire fa with hottest temperatures in northern OK. Triple digit
heat index values are also expected Monday afternoon with values of
105+ expected pretty much areawide so have issued a heat advisory
for the entire fa. Heat index values hover around 110 in north
central OK so an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed
there but will hold off for now and let later shifts take another
look at it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The mid/upper ridge will continue to influence the area Tuesday
before beginning to amplify over the western U.S. that is expected
to lead to a pattern shift the middle of the week. The amplifying
ridge will lead to NW flow aloft over the region and this is
expected to continue into next weekend.

With the ridge continuing to influence the area Tuesday, hot and
humid conditions are expected to continue Tuesday afternoon with
triple digit heat index values and a heat advisory likely needed
across at least parts of the fa.

Most of the fa should also remain dry Tuesday. However, some of the
models and CAMs are showing a sfc trough/weak boundary near the OK-
KS border which could bring a chance for rain to northern parts of
the area Tuesday. Since this is a new trend, kept the forecast dry
for now but if it continues some low PoPs may need to be introduced
earlier on Tuesday.

With the pattern shift in the middle of the week, models show a cool
front moving across the entire area Wednesday bringing cooler
temperatures along with a chance for showers and storms. Rain
chances will continue into next weekend across at least parts of the
fa. Temperatures are also expected to remain around or a bit below
normal Thursday into next weekend. So it does look like there should
be a break in the heat later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions along with light to moderate southerly winds
expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 103  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76 107  75 100 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     77 106  79 103 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         77 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-017>020.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11